James Brodie
Head of Learning & Development, Flux
S&P All-Time Highs, Bond Curve Repricing Risk,Trump Tariffs
Stocks hit ATHs as bonds reprice fewer Fed cuts; yields, USD up, curve flattens. Japan rates jump, yen sinks, uranium soars, Trump tariffs
While the S&P500, gold & silver make new all-time highs, the front of the bond curve is repricing risk.
Consensus for more Fed cuts have fallen and with CPI today the risk is the 2-year bond yield break out higher, triggering stops. The OIS prices just 21bp cuts in 1H26. Subsequently the dollar trends higher and the 2s10s curve has fallen from 72bp to 64bp. (Chart 1, US 2yr yield, Bloomberg)
The Japanese 10-yr JGB jumps 9bp, Nikkei up +3.1% and the Yen continues to get smoked. Gold in Yen terms is another great hindsight trade! (Chart 2 XAUJPY, Bloomberg)
Uranium rises 2.5% on the day, up 21% in 8 trading sessions, on the back of the AI power demand trade.
TRUMP TO IMPOSE 25% TARIFF ON ANY COUNTRY THAT TRADES WITH IRAN - Bloomberg. *China accounts for roughly 25–30% of total trade as the largest buyer of Iranian oil and petrochemicals (close to 35% of exports). Will China see this as a new escalation in trade?
*TRUMP: TECH COMPANIES MUST PAY FOR DATA CENTER ELECTRIC BILLS
*TRUMP: HAVE MUCH TO ANNOUNCE IN COMING WEEKS ON DATA CENTERS
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told President Trump that the investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell has “made a mess” and could hurt financial markets, sources say.
Apple joins forces with Google (Gemini) to power artificial intelligence features for products, like Siri, later this year — CNBC
The market is bullish! (Chart 3, BofA Global Research)
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