In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this sixth edition, we take a look at the May'25 Mont Belvieu TET propane (C3 LST) swap. 

Liberation day! Players liberated themselves from the USD, the stock market, and oil ahead of the announcement, and markets dropped on opening on Thursday. The already-in-place USMCA in the Americas limited the real-world impact of this new barrage of tariffs on US oil and gas. $2 trillion off US equity valuations were lost in just 16 minutes. These are particularly hard on China, with their 10-year yields down -8bps. The tariffs were higher than expected, and governments have responded by stressing the damage this will have to both economies. The art of the deal has begun, and countries are scrambling ...

The front-month Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, falling from $71.65/bbl at 12:00 BST to $69.60/bbl at 16:05 BST. While the contract has since recovered to $70.05/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing), we continue to see resistance at this level.

The Jun’25 Brent crude futures initially grinded lower on Wednesday afternoon but found support at $74/bbl and rebounded to $75/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). Today’s low of $73.85/bbl aligned with the 50-day moving average, a level of support. EIA stats indicated a 6.2mb build in crude in the week ending 28 March, while gasoline stocks fell by 1.6mb. In the news, Petrobras has made significant new oil discoveries in Brazil’s Campos, Santos, and Buzios basins, potentially accelerating peak production timelines by a year, according to its exploration chief. Norway’s financial regulator has uncovered that Romarine AS, a firm ...

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

At the time of our last report on 18 Mar, strength in the physical market we saw at the start of March had started to decline, with the Dated physical differential falling about 40c down to $0.45/bbl from 05-20 Mar. While we expected buying in the physical at these lower levels, buying has been much more aggressive and sudden than anticipated. In the window, we saw Vitol bidding Forties and Totsa came in bidding Midland, both in large volume. As a result, the physical diff rallied all the way up to $1.06/bbl, with BP being a seller in the physical ...

The front-month (June'25) Brent futures contract remained rangebound this afternoon, hovering between $74.60 and $75.25/bbl and trading at $74.60/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing).

The Jun’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Monday afternoon, rising by nearly $2 over two hours from $73/bbl to $74.70/bbl by 17:00 BST (time of writing). The daily candlestick indicates resolute buying pressure as prices pushed through the 50-day and 100-day resistance levels. Prices have been supported by heightened geopolitical risks of US sanctions that could affect Venezuela and Iran’s oil exports. Trump being ‘angry’ at Putin and threatening secondary tariffs have further raised the bullish temperature.