The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price dropped to around $76.15/bbl at 1400 GMT to $74.90/bbl at 1715 GMT (time of writing) as it broke back below the 50-day moving average today. JODI data reported that China’s total product demand fell by 17 kb/d this month, while total product imports increased by 96 kb/d. Libya's National Oil Corporation reported that oil production has declined to 1.405 mb/d. The US is pressuring Iraq to resume Kurdish oil exports, warning of sanctions over ties to Iran. Baghdad plans to restart exports next week, but payment and logistics disputes remain. According to Fox News ...

Brent rally? Aaaaaand it’s gone. Brent crude futures is on track to see a small gain w/w, as the Apr’25 contract rose from $74.50/bbl on 17 Feb to $77/bbl by 20 Feb before correcting lower to $75/bbl by 16:00 GMT on 21 Feb (time of writing). Looking at the daily candlesticks in Brent, four consecutive higher closes were followed by a resounding bearish Marubozu candle and bearish engulfing pattern, wiping out gains made earlier in the week. $77/bbl was a key resistance level as prices failed to surpass the highs of 11 Feb. We caveat that the three factors listed ...

The Apr’25 Brent Futures contract was rangebound this afternoon, trading between $76.25/bbl and $76.60/bbl until around 16:00 GMT, after which it rallied to $77.02/bbl, where it sits at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). EIA statistics highlighted a 4.63mb build in crude stocks while distillates and gasoline drew 2.05mb and 0.15mb, respectively. In headlines, Texas based refiner HF Sinclair Corporation reported a Q4 2024 adjusted net loss of $191 million, missing analyst expectations due to declining refining margins driven by high global fuel supply and lower sales volumes. While other major refiners like Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and Phillips 66 ...

Front-month Brent futures has been more supported this week. We initially oscillated between $74 and $75/bbl before breaking into the $76/bbl handle. The $77/bbl handle remains a critical resistance level, which the M1 futures contract is now flirting with at $76.95/bbl at the time of writing. The market is riddled with uncertainty surrounding the timeline for the war in Ukraine. While the US appears determined to negotiate a deal with Russia, leaving Ukraine out of the meeting room may cause some friction. On top of this, we continue to see news of drone strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in ...

After the Apr’25 Brent futures rose from $76.30/bbl at 1300 GMT this afternoon to a weekly high of almost $76.80/bbl at 1440 GMT, before falling down to $76.25/bbl at 1735 GMT Overall, crude oil prices have been supported on fears of supply disruption, following the drone attack on the CPC pipeline oil flows and ongoing cold weather in the US. In the news today, oil flows from Iran to China rebounded in February after traders smoothed logistical bottlenecks caused by tighter US sanctions, seeing an increase in ship-to-ship transfers and use of alternative terminals, Bloomberg reports. In February, Iranian oil ...

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

This week, we have seen a good example of the dichotomy between Brent's futures and the physical market that underpins it. In the physical, it seems that the market has found a floor this week. Equinor and Gunvor were running down the physical premium with good offering, but this has been met with better buying now. On 17 Feb, Glencore, PetroIneos, and Totsa were bidding for Forties and Midland, and we expect some better support here with good refiner buying seen with decent margins. Our view is that for this month, there is not a lot of crude left in ...

The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price saw a choppy afternoon, swinging by a dollar from $76 to $75/bbl before rising to $75.70/bbl by 17:00 GMT. According to a Bloomberg report, privately-run terminals in China, particularly in Shandong, Yangshan, and Huizhou, have become key hubs for receiving sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude, allowing independent refiners to circumvent U.S. restrictions while shielding major state-owned operators from scrutiny. Diamondback Energy is expanding its Permian Basin footprint with a $4.1 billion acquisition of Double Eagle IV, paid through $3 billion in cash and stock, adding 27kb/d of production while prioritising efficiency and free cash ...