The North Sea physical differential strengthened above $0.80/bbl last week but has since petered out, dropping to $0.69/bbl on 20 Jan. 20 Jan also saw five offers for WTI Midland in the window from Eni, Unipec, Shell and two offers from Gunvor, who interestingly was buying cargoes before this. We saw no bids in the window for the first time since 3 Jan.

The Mar’25 Brent futures flat price clawed higher on Tuesday afternoon, rising from $78.50/bbl at 14:00 GMT to nearly $79.60/bbl by 16:45 GMT before falling to $79.16/bbl by 17:40 GMT (time of writing). In the news, a rare winter storm across the U.S. South has disrupted natural gas and oil production, strained the Texas power grid, and halted LNG exports. Despite the Houthis' announced pullback, insurers remain reluctant to cover Red Sea transit due to ongoing security risks, delaying a full return to the Suez Canal route and keeping freight rates elevated, though a gradual decline is expected. Trump’s tariff ...

The Mar’25 Brent futures contract started to recover this afternoon, strengthening around 50c since this morning up to $80.93/bbl at 1325 GMT. However, Brent flat price then sold-off at US open (1330 GMT) down to $79.45/bbl around 1400 GMT, retracing to $80.08/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have continued to decline as traders anticipate policy announcements from US President Donald Trump, including plans to boost domestic oil production and resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the news today, Chinese crude imports from Russia rose by 1% y/y to a record high of 2.17mb/d, data from the Chinese ...

Bye Bye Biden The M1 Brent futures contract surged to its highest level since July last week but has since softened to $80.80/bbl at 12:45 GMT (time of writing). We expect the M1 contract to end the week between $78 and $81/bbl, in line with the current 13-day and 5-day moving averages, respectively, where we see key support and resistance levels. At the time of writing, the prompt contract is on track for a third consecutive day of bearishness. Should we see another red candle by the end of the day, the M1 contract will display a “three black crows” ...

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The Mar’25 Brent futures contract weakened further this afternoon, falling from $81.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $80.57/bbl at 1600 GMT, before recovering to $81.15/bbl at 1755 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have faced some downward pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, following Israel’s security cabinet’s approval of the Gaza ceasefire deal. In the news today, China's oil refinery throughput in 2024 saw its first decline in over two decades excluding 2022, as refineries scaled back operations amid stagnant fuel demand and weak margins. Throughput dropped 1.6% year-over-year to 14.13 million barrels per day. In ...

Brent Consolidates Above $80/bbl Brent crude futures maintained their strength above the $80/bbl handle this week, amid supply tightness fears following the Biden administration’s sweeping sanctions targeting the Russian oil industry. As of 13:00 GMT (time of writing), Mar’25 Brent traded around $81/bbl. In this review, we will discuss the following factors that affected crude oil prices this week: The prospect of tougher sanctions on Russia and Iran continues to fuel bullish sentiment in the oil market. Amid supply tightness fears, money managers have quickly rebuilt long positions and liquidated short positions, with the long:short ratio in Brent at the ...

Mar’25 Brent futures saw oscillating price action this afternoon, increasing from $81.20/bbl at 1230 GMT to nearly $82.00/bbl at 1425 GMT, before falling to $80.45/bbl at 1630 and recovering to $81.45/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran will not include a mutual defence clause like those Russia has signed with North Korea and Belarus, according to TASS citing an Iranian envoy. In other news, advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are readying a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate Russia-Ukraine diplomacy in coming months while at the same time squeezing ...