Dated v Brent:
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Brent v Dubai:
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Edge Updates

Dubai Market Report – Maximum Pressure

The weakness we have seen in the Brent/Dubai complex in recent months has continued, with the Apr'25 contract steadily declining from around -$0.90/bbl on March 11 to -$1.35/bbl by March 20. This downward trend accelerated sharply on the morning of 20 Mar, following reports of new US sanctions targeting Chinese teapot refiner Shandong Luqing Petrochemical for purchasing significant volumes of Iranian crude oil. As the market weighed up this headline, Apr'25 Brent/Dubai plunged to -$2.03/bbl by the afternoon of 20 Mar — marking the lowest level for the M1 contract since early February...

Dubai Market Report – The Roll Down

The past two weeks saw rapid fluctuations in price action, reinforcing the high volatility regime that has marked Brent/Dubai since the start of the year. As OPEC+ confirmed their plans to proceed with its long-delayed production increase of 138kb/d beginning in April, prices in Brent/Dubai spiked higher, with Apr'25 rising from -$1.01/bbl on 27 Feb to intraday highs of $0.04/bbl by 04 Mar. However, the gains were quickly reversed as the Brent/Dubai complex saw consistent selling. As a result, Apr'25 fell to -$1/bbl where it found technical support. This time, the downtrend was uniform down the forward curve, with deferred tenors reaching new lows, as players seek to capture the roll-down trade. This is in complete contrast to the sell-off in January, which was localised to the front. A snapshot of the Brent/Dubai forward curve reveals an orderly contango, with the exception of the Bal-Mar/Apr box, which is positive.

Upcoming events

Most Popular

European Window: Brent corrects to over $65

2d ago
Front-month Brent futures stabilised this afternoon following the huge pressure it was under in the morning. The contract saw support just above $64.00/bbl at around 15:50 BST and was more supported at $65.40/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). China announced retaliatory tariffs on all US products in response to similar tariffs imposed by President Trump this week. China announced 34% retaliatory tariffs on all American imports starting 10 Apr, in the first Chinese response to Trump’s tariffs. This response was received poorly by Mr Trump, who said they "played it wrong". While the US tariffs excluded energy products, China's ...

COT Deep Dive – Mont Belvieu TET Propane Swap. 

2d ago
In this publication, we leverage Onyx's proprietary Commitment of Traders data in order to identify changes in swap Open Interest and Positioning against Onyx with a view, in conjunction with long/short entry price levels and volatility analysis to identify potential continuation or reversal trends. In this sixth edition, we take a look at the May'25 Mont Belvieu TET propane (C3 LST) swap. 

Trader Meeting Notes: (Trade) War … What is it good for?

3d ago
Liberation day! Players liberated themselves from the USD, the stock market, and oil ahead of the announcement, and markets dropped on opening on Thursday. The already-in-place USMCA in the Americas limited the real-world impact of this new barrage of tariffs on US oil and gas. $2 trillion off US equity valuations were lost in just 16 minutes. These are particularly hard on China, with their 10-year yields down -8bps. The tariffs were higher than expected, and governments have responded by stressing the damage this will have to both economies. The art of the deal has begun, and countries are scrambling ...

European Window: Brent falls sub $70/bbl

3d ago
The front-month Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, falling from $71.65/bbl at 12:00 BST to $69.60/bbl at 16:05 BST. While the contract has since recovered to $70.05/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing), we continue to see resistance at this level.

European Window: Brent rises to $75/bbl

4d ago
The Jun’25 Brent crude futures initially grinded lower on Wednesday afternoon but found support at $74/bbl and rebounded to $75/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). Today’s low of $73.85/bbl aligned with the 50-day moving average, a level of support. EIA stats indicated a 6.2mb build in crude in the week ending 28 March, while gasoline stocks fell by 1.6mb. In the news, Petrobras has made significant new oil discoveries in Brazil’s Campos, Santos, and Buzios basins, potentially accelerating peak production timelines by a year, according to its exploration chief. Norway’s financial regulator has uncovered that Romarine AS, a firm ...

COT Report: The Art of the Tariff

4d ago
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

Dated Brent Report – Turning The Tide

5d ago
At the time of our last report on 18 Mar, strength in the physical market we saw at the start of March had started to decline, with the Dated physical differential falling about 40c down to $0.45/bbl from 05-20 Mar. While we expected buying in the physical at these lower levels, buying has been much more aggressive and sudden than anticipated. In the window, we saw Vitol bidding Forties and Totsa came in bidding Midland, both in large volume. As a result, the physical diff rallied all the way up to $1.06/bbl, with BP being a seller in the physical ...

European Window: Brent trades around $74.60/bbl

5d ago
The front-month (June'25) Brent futures contract remained rangebound this afternoon, hovering between $74.60 and $75.25/bbl and trading at $74.60/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing).

Events

Apr 8, 2025
17:00
EIA STEO
in 3d
Apr 9, 2025
08:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 4d
Fujairah Inventories
in 4d
21:30
API Stats Release
in 4d
API Stats Release
in 4d
Apr 10, 2025
11:00
Apr25 ICE Gasoil Expiry
in 5d
15:15
ARA Product Inventories
in 5d
Apr 14, 2025
13:00
OPEC OMR
in 9d
OPEC OMR
in 9d
Apr 16, 2025
08:00
Fujairah Inventories
in 11d
Fujairah Inventories
in 11d
21:30
API Stats Release
in 11d
API Stats Release
in 11d
Apr 17, 2025
15:15
ARA Product Inventories
in 12d
23:00
ICE Holiday
in 12d
Apr 18, 2025
04:00
CME Holiday
in 12d
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