On Wednesday, JP Morgan said their estimated Brent fair value stood at $66/bbl, considering the low probability of the Strait of Hormuz entirely shutting down. The M1 Brent futures, however, rallied to $76/bbl this day and now stands at $78.65/bbl (at the time of writing on 19 Jun). While we also see little chance of a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz...

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

The Aug’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Tuesday afternoon, surpassing $75/bbl, peaking at $75.66/bbl at 15:51 BST and traded at $75.30/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Fears of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have kept prices supported, as Trump signals he may consider direct action to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment amid rising military risks and limited diplomatic progress. Israel has intensified strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear infrastructure, while the U.S. accelerates its regional military buildup, fuelling concerns that Washington may be drawn directly into the conflict. In its monthly oil report, the IEA noted ...

Given the return of geopolitical risk and the resulting hysterical volatility in the futures market, it has been a quieter-than-expected period in the Dubai market. In theory, Brent/Dubai was expected to crater on fears of supply disruption in the Middle East with the reignition of conversations around the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz

The Dated market rallied from already robust levels as the physical received strong bids. There was initially some weakness in the physical differential on 10-12 Jun as on 11 Jun there was 23-27/Jun CFD sold by a British Major with US buying, whilst the physical was better offered, as four cargoes traded, leaving the physical differential weaker with Forties, WTI Midland and Ekofisk traded in the window. Following the Israeli strikes on Iran and the retaliation and escalation, there has been strong buying. On 13 Jun, we saw the Brent and Ekofisk curves lifted higher by a Geneva trade house ...

The front-month Brent futures contract gapped lower from $73.55/bbl at 14:50 BST to $71.15/bbl at 15:00 BST. Prices edged close to the $70/bbl psychological support level around 15:30 BST, where they met support and climbed to $72.80/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing).

Brent forecast – Geopolitical special Iran has rejected truce talks while under attack, refusing to negotiate until it has completed its response to Israel’s strikes. This is the fourth day of open warfare, and the line in the sand around oil infrastructure has been broken. The strikes have been on domestic infrastructure as opposed to exports, with missile and drone strikes on Iranian refining facilities, oil fields and gas fields. Iranian ballistic missile reportedly hits the Haifa refinery in Israel, retaliating against Israel’s strikes on Iranian energy and nuclear sites. Israel has destroyed Iran’s allies, the ones willing to fight ...

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