The May’25 Brent futures contract traded sideways this afternoon, increasing from $73.60/bbl at 1230 GMT up to $74.15/bbl at 1550 GMT, before declining to $73.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have fluctuated as Russia and Ukraine have now accused one another of flouting the ceasefire on energy strikes reached on 25 Mar.

See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

The May’25 Brent futures contract reversed this morning’s gains, falling from $73.55 around 1345 GMT down to $72.50/bbl at 1620 GMT, inching up to $72.85/bbl by 1755 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have seen a downward correction this afternoon amid news of a Russia-Ukraine truce at sea and potentially some small profit-taking on recent Brent strength.

The North Sea Dated Brent physical differential was implied quite stably mid-month as it crept down below 80c/bbl. It then dropped more severely to 46c/bbl on 20 Mar as the front and back of the Forties curve were offered by a major, although the middle was bid, with some offers coming in for back-end Midland. The diff was implied higher to 75c/bbl on 24 Mar as we saw a major bidding on the Forties curve up to $0.80/bbl with the back offered high by a refiner.

The weakness we have seen in the Brent/Dubai complex in recent months has continued, with the Apr'25 contract steadily declining from around -$0.90/bbl on March 11 to -$1.35/bbl by March 20. This downward trend accelerated sharply on the morning of 20 Mar, following reports of new US sanctions targeting Chinese teapot refiner Shandong Luqing Petrochemical for purchasing significant volumes of Iranian crude oil. As the market weighed up this headline, Apr'25 Brent/Dubai plunged to -$2.03/bbl by the afternoon of 20 Mar — marking the lowest level for the M1 contract since early February...

May’25 Brent futures initially dipped from $72.60/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $72.15/bbl shortly after 1300 GMT. Flat price then strengthened to this afternoon’s high of $73.15/bbl at 1610 GMT, moderating to $72.85/bbl by 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, President Trump has threatened to hit countries that buy Venezuelan oil and gas with a 25% tariff, expected to come into effect on April 2. The move aims to cut a major source of revenue for Nicolas Maduro’s regime in Caracas while putting further pressure on China, a major purchaser of Venezuelan crude, as per Bloomberg. Furthermore, ...

The May’25 Brent crude futures opened on 24 March above $72/bbl, marking its highest level traded since the start of March. Prices were supported last week as the US sanctioned a Chinese teapot refiner for the first time as it stepped up pressure on buyers of Iranian oil, while OPEC+ issued a new plan for its members to compensate for overproduction. Looking forward to this week, we anticipate prices to see further support, finishing the week between $72 and $75/bbl. The following factors are expected to be key drivers of price action this week: The White House’s move to narrow ...

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