NEWS

The biggest risk to crowded consensus trades is a breakout higher in U.S. 2-year yields.

U.S. data continues to beat expectations with PPI (a CPI lead indicator) jumping markedly to +3.0% (est 2.7%), retail sales +0.6% MoM (est +0.4% ), and existing home sales jumped from 4.14M to 4.35M.

Silver is already up exactly 25% year to date, aluminium 21%, and the move from financial assets to hard assets continues.

• Listen to what's going on in Dated, Dubai, Options and Volatility, Distillates, Fuel, Naphtha, Gasoline , Refinery Margins, NGLs, and European Power this week
• This episode was recorded on Tuesday, the 13th of January 2026, at 11:00 a.m., London time.

While the S&P500, gold & silver make new all-time highs, the front of the bond curve is repricing risk.

• Vitol Diluent Cargo is set to be shipped on Vessel Hellenspont Protector from US gulf coast and is expected to arrive in Venezuela next week.

• A top Vitol executive said: "We are here to ensure that you [president Trump] are going to be able to move oil around the world, at the best price possible."

• His remarks challenged President Trump’s claim that US oil companies are ready to invest $100 billion or more in the country.

• The comments cast doubt on the administration’s push to quickly revive Venezuela’s oil sector with American capital.

• Intraday resistance on 7 Jan were around $40/mt, with the gap down from December providing next key level.

• In Singapore, imports up 46.8% w/w, driven by Russian inflows of 116,994 mt.

• Al Zour should be back online, and LG Chem secured a light naphtha tender for March/April delivery at discounts to MOPJ.

• The M1 ICE gasoil crack is now testing the 200-day moving average, a long-term support level which we last tested right before the 12-day war in June.

• We're comfortably in a bearish trend, and the RSI at 33 (still neutral) shows further room for downside price action. Hence, monitor this level, as a close below this level would encourage further selling.