The Officials

Europe slipped back below $76 in its morning trading, shedding some of the gains it made yesterday. By lunchtime, we were looking at the mid-$75 range. Then, the Americans gave Brent a leg-up and put us back onto a $76 handle before 13:45 GMT, recovering the slide to finish at $76.33/bbl. Over in the window, Gunvor was back for another round of North Sea fun, offering a Forties CIF cargo for 15-19 Jan. Its best offer was Dated +$1 but that didn’t get any attention, so withdrew. Its other Forties offer, 19-23 Jan, came to Dated +$1.40 but likewise didn’t get a nibble. BP also offered Forties CIF 18-22 Jan and withdrew it at $1.50 over Dated. The sellers have been left out in the cold for the time being.

The late session yesterday saw Brent flat price decline below $76 again, and the Asian session flirted with that level throughout, but just failed to cling on to it, eventually closing at $75.98/bbl. Having marginally come up short of the $76 handle at the close, flat price slipped deeper into $75 following the window and settled in the mid-$75 range. On a flat price basis, physical Dubai loadings in March were significantly lower yesterday than the February loading physical Dubai as it traded in the final calendar December sessions. Yesterday, Dubai partials/Brent futures were 43c, but today gained 12c to leave Dubai partials/Brent futures at 55c. Asian demand is fierce! Buy before the yuan depreciates even further. China’s demand looks like it’s mounting a recovery – the stimulus seems to be working.

At last! Salvation for Equinor! It finally shifted some Johan Sverdrup by smashing Totsa’s offer for a 13-15 Jan cargo once it reached Dated -$0.80. Equinor had gone quiet in the second half of December having failed to garner much interest in its many JS offerings. The busyness of December’s windows saw the highest volumes of crude shipped since July, at 1.99 mil b/d according to ship tracking data. Traders didn’t waste any time getting down to business in 2025, though. It wasn’t quite as chaotic as the early December windows but it wasn’t just a start-of-month standoff either. BP wanted to get in on the action too, offering both Forties and Brent. Once Gunvor had picked up the British major’s 24-28 Jan offer at $1.25 over Dated, it withdrew its own Forties offer. Gunvor seemed indecisive, offering and lifting Forties. Not long after Gunvor lifted BP’s offer, BP seemed content with its day’s labour and withdrew its Brent offer. For February loading cargoes, quality premiums were increased across grades: Oseberg was bumped 10c, Ekofisk up 15c, while Troll rose 2c.

Welcome to Volume 2 of The Officials! 2024 was a big year for us, establishing our report and adding numerous key benchmarks, even branching out into crypto and launching our own dollar index – the ODX Asia™. Expect more exciting things in 2025, including our upcoming price discovery for Dated Brent and additional commodities, to be revealed… With a New Year, do Brent futures have a new lease of life? Asia opened up and pushed us over the $75/bbl mark for the first time since 25 November. Content with a hard day’s work, Asia gradually eased off through the rest of the session, with Brent eventually closing at $74.77/bbl. However, the foray above 75 laid the foundations for Europe to fire flat price towards $75.70/bbl at around 10:00 GMT. The mid-70s are back – we just hope the hairstyles don’t come back too.

In April we were flirting with the low $90s. Then on three occasions in H2 we’ve teased the high $60s. But Brent flat price has found its comfort zone and settled into the lower half of the $70s range throughout December. It’s been a year of two halves in terms of prices, with China’s wobble and OPEC quota delays and deliberations key drivers of price moves. Geopolitical flare ups have played their role too, with major price surges in April and October highlighting that. The rate cutting cycle that has characterised global monetary policy looks set to continue into next year.

What a year it has been! We tested low 90s and we also tested high 60s. But we are closing the year definitely towards the lower end of the range still trying to secure a $75.00/bbl beachhead for Brent as we enter the New Year. The year started with some promise for producers, as the market flirted with the low 90s trying to climb into a three-digit market… but it was not to be. Even so, Dubai ended the year on a high, with Totsa engaging in a window-based version of the classic gameshow ‘Supermarket Sweep’, hoovering up all the supply it could get its mitts on. In Ancient Greece, there was the Minotaur and nowadays in the Dubai Market there is the Major Taureau . The extremely strong Dubai physical premium we’ve seen – even reaching above $2 – in the final trading week of December puts the Saudis in a bit of an OSP pickle. How will Aramco’s leadership react to the market signals it has to contend with, even if they’re distorted, and the long-term symbiotic relationship with their customers? We’ll find out soon enough…

The cold is coming. Winter is tightening its icy death grip on both Europe and the US. Early January is forecast to be absolutely chilling, below average temperatures for the time of year. The Arctic temperatures making a beeline for the US will surely bolster heating demand as people rush to turn up the thermostat. US Midwest temperatures are expected to be near 12 degrees Celsius lower than their 30-year normal in early January, while temperatures in London are likely to fall by up to 10 degrees Celsius by the end of this week. And markets have reacted, with both Henry Hub and TTF futures jumping on the expectation for intense heating demand.

Totsa drove up the price of Dubai to above $75.00/bbl, the highest price for any benchmark crude in December. Brent
closed the Asian market at $74.09 and WTI further behind at $70.50. Totsa, the Taureau, as we call them, had the horns on
all month, buying and buying and buying Dubai. In December, the French major has bought a total of 33 physical cargoes
in the Dubai window. Upper Zakum is the preferred grade this month, making up 26 cargoes of the total 38. The physical
premium started the month at $0.89 and with one trading day left in the month it reached $2.25/bbl. This premium has
huge implications for the economics of Asian refining as it will surely lead to a huge jump in Saudi OSPs of over $1.00
relative to the current OSPs. The rise in flat price and premiums then affects consumers across many nations, affecting
billions of people, without any exaggeration. Totsa is believed to have reacted and grabbed the opportunity created by extra
import quotas given to selected Chinese buyers.

Traders in the first European session after Christmas were back for more Brent, sending flat price upwards. It even looked ready to challenge the $74 ceiling for the first time since last Thursday, and it finally did, just after 14:00 GMT, peaking at $74.12, before cooling off slightly to close at $73.99/bbl. This range is sticky and flat price is stuck in the mud, lurching between $72 and $74 without being able to break through either conclusively or for more than moments – as we saw again this afternoon. Post-window it slid back down towards $73.70/bbl and then bounced back following the big crude draw reported by the EIA. The further you pull an elastic band, the further it will rebound the other way.

Totsa ate everyone up, we would say . They are winning big time, and all the sellers are licking their wounds wishing they had not sold so early. Truly a magnificently engineered play! All the signs were there from the moment the Chinese issued the extra buy crude tender. Now the Taureau is just stomping on the shorts, snorting as it gores them away. If we could give them the orange award for master presseur we would . There were very few Dubai offers late on, just bids flying around like a swarm of confused sparrows as sellers tried to swipe them out of the air. Of the final 9 trades, just 1 was an offer being lifted – by Totsa of course . Naturally, many of the bids swarming the sellers came from Totsa too, but Mercuria and Glencore weren’t going to be left out. The variety of sellers did their best to keep a lid on things but they just couldn’t do it. Look no further than the Dubai physical premium for proof: we know it was strong yesterday, but today the premium soared to $2.16! OMG, we say to the shorts, RIP!

The European Christmas cheers continued on the first day back after the brief holiday. The positivity sent Brent flat price higher. Brent futures closed the Asian session at $73.85/bbl, $0.93/bbl up on the day. Dubai partials, meanwhile, zoomed up even more settling at $74.55/bbl, a massive $1.26/bbl up! Asia’s stolen a march while Europe’s busy enjoying itself and gorging on mince pies. Totsa is winning big time! And Dubai keeps on going. They say the sky’s the limit… let’s see if that rings true.

Flat price is vacillating, up and down like some who are already enjoying Christmas. What the hell, the moves are minor, so don’t worry. The window saw a flat price slip, from above $73.30 to below $73, though it found some support in the $72.90s. But it quickly rebounded towards $73.20. It’s like a kid who can’t decide whether to play with the bear or bull action figures it just unwrapped for Christmas. Or someone who had one too many And then it came back down again… After all that choppy window action, Brent ended European trading at $73.17/bbl. Up and down faster than Father Christmas in a chimney!

‘Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house / Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse. Except Totsa. Totsa was awake and rummaging through the Dubai window looking for cargoes like an excited child sifting through a Christmas stocking on the hunt for chocolate. Buyers and sellers exchanged partial gifts all in good Christmas spirit. Right? And the French were rewarded with another 4 convergences! They got three Upper Zakums: one from each of BP, Exxon and Reliance. Trafi wanted to be different to the rest and nominated an Oman. By our counting, that makes a total of 29 convergences in December in the Dubai window, of which 27(!!) have gone to Totsa. More than one cargo per calendar day and working towards half of the Upper Zakum monthly program. Don’t call it a squeeze, call it a Christmas embrace. Tight we know So far, two other cargoes went to Mitsui and Glencore, who’ve been left to fight for Totsa’s leftovers all month. Thank you to our kind readers for helping to cross-check the data! Singapore friends, you are awesome!

It was a flat price slip and slide. Throughout the Asian session Brent flat price remained supported just above $73 before Europe came in and put an end to that. By the window, we were even troubling the low $72 range. Team America didn’t even bother turning up to try and arrest the downward momentum, which saw Brent end far down on the day, at $72.06/bbl. Perhaps they’re already tucking into the mince pies.

Totsa continues to vacuum clean the Dubai floor. Anything the market throws at them, Totsa sucks up. And they are
winning; the premium is jumping. The food fight has moved from the North Sea window to the Dubai window. And it’s getting
messy with Totsa fully dominating the market. More bids, more lifting… it’s become a deeply entrenched pattern of the
Dubai windows for months now. An offer from BP, they’ll take it. Something pops up from Trafi, they’ll snatch that. Unipec
or Exxon places an offer and it’s bound to get a hammering from Totsa. All the sellers seemed to get their fair share of
smacking. Only a few sellers got to return the favour by hitting a Totsa bid, but Vitol, Exxon and Equinor all managed to
squeeze it into their busy schedules. The French zeal saw Totsa gain yet more convergences: one each from Phillips and
Trafi, which both handed out Upper Zakum. By our counting, that gives Totsa 23 convergences so far in December – not
quite on par with November, but still a vast volume. The market is a bit dry and premia react – the Dubai physical premium
surging 97c yesterday to $1.12 today!