The Officials

10 dollars down in 2 days! The power of market pricing in the collapse in global trade. China’s bold retaliation delivered the coup d’grace and the flat price expired. We know it can be temporary if the grown-ups ask questions and say, what are we doing, we are all tied in. In the meantime, 50s is not out of question. The impact on the Gulf economies is severe and all hands should be on deck not to paint rosy demand pictures but to have serious chats with the US and its trading partners.

It is bad, really bad. Wars of any kind including trade wars leave heaps of casualties in their wake. In this case, depleted
consumers, shutdown manufacturers, trucking and shipping companies and chip manufacturers, one of the main US exports to
China. The size of trade is huge and more details in the next section.
But in the meantime, oil got whacked! Down, down, down it goes. We are firmly in the 60s territory. Just as flat price gets
whacked with one bearish headline, another one emerges. Tariffs, OPEC, retaliation. From a $75 handle at the start of April
we’re now down almost $10/bbl! It’s brutal out there folks, recession fears are growing, and China just announced a hefty 34%
reciprocal tariff on all US goods from April 10! No crude, oil product, LNG or any other commodity type will go from the US to
China. China is the world’s biggest seaborne crude importer and flow US-China is now firmly shut! The US trade deficit with
China last year was near $300 billion! Up 5.8% y/y – the US needs China more than the other way around…

The 60s are back! The market didn’t just fall at the open but kept going all the way to under $70! For the first time since 19 March. So, what triggered the price collapse in oil and equities? Oil was let off easily with crude from Canada and Mexico entering tariff free as per normal. So, longs hoping for mayhem exited to the left and tumbled down the stairs. And on equities, they got more punishment than they thought; seeing the upcoming global slowdown they sold off ahead of time. Actually, things are very messy and it has a feel of a bunch of real amateurs running the circus. Trump spilled blood on Wall Street and now he’s back to his aim of cheap oil! With a bit of help from OPEC even…

As The Officials keep saying, along with every respected economist, tariffs are not good for the economy! Today, the world and its people will become poorer, and Tariff Man will eventually understand the people he promised to protect will end up paying the price of his hubris. And the administration published some clearly erroneous tariff numbers as justification. They added the import value and divide by the export value which leads not to tariff rates but crazy numbers. It doesn’t seem a great way to manage major economic policy… For China, for example, the additional 34% rate, equals the US deficit with China of $291.9 billion, divided by total imports from China of $433.8 billion, then divided by 2 again!

It’s coming. Not He but the Tariff Man! At last we’ll know who’s getting hit by what. And how much. Or maybe things will change again immediately after the press conference. To be upfront, we were confused what was actually in place preceding the set of tariffs. So much has been done and immediately undone. Keep an eye on @OnyxOfficials X page as we cover proceedings live.

Today’s the day. At last. America’s ‘Liberation Day’. Forget about 4 July, this is the big one. Unless there have been any last minute calls from desperate leaders hoping to duck extra tariffs. Mr T has taken a pickaxe to global trade to reforge it in his own image. Who knows where he will hit next? And by how much? And on what?

$75 is a tough nut to crack. After last week’s rally, Brent rolled into April and fancied a go at it and the front month (June) contract tiptoed over this morning to peak at $75.27/bbl before falling back to close at $74.93/bbl. The front Brent spread took flight yesterday, closing in on $1.20, but descended again to 82c by today’s European close. So, what happens now? Is this overbought territory? Feels like it, and only those daring and with a strong expectation of boom boom should be long above $75… otherwise, risky!

For the week ending 28 March, our momentum table shows most contracts seeing slight to moderate growth in exchange traded volumes for June and July tenors, except for gasoil contracts which declined by 13% and 20% respectively. For the May tenor, most contracts saw small changes or declines, while May Brent fell steeply by 29.69% and RBOB rose by 9%.

Before we get into the main report, we’d like to share a quick update. The Officials have just completed our third quarter and have hit 2 million views across our social media! If you would like to receive our reports directly, please get in touch and we will arrange to send them to you every day! Or go to our Twitter page @OnyxOfficials.

What a difference the rumblings of war can do. For Brent, March was a month divided in two. In the first sessions, it tumbled to below $69, going all the way down to $68.50/bbl on 5 March. The drop was caused by poor economics as some countries could see a severe contraction in the growth rate. But then the price turned back and built steadily into the low $70s before last week’s rally to $74. The US was beating on the Houthis and the rumours were on that Trump would drop bombs like never seen on the Iranians.

While equities were getting hammered (see more in the detail), dated was on a tear! The April DFL rallied up to $1.58/bbl from just under a dollar before the move this morning. Traders noted mega short covering, “mental buying” said one trader. CFDs strengthened too with the 22-25 April contract jumping to $1.28/bbl, and the 31 March – 4 April contract rose to $2/bbl!

In March, markets once again found themselves being pulled to-and-fro as international trade developments, geopolitical tensions, and window shenanigans continued to challenge traders. Even Gunvor are pretty “risk off at the moment” according to discussion at the Ft Commodities Summit last week.

Bonjour to Zelenskyy, who received considerable validation from a slew of European leaders in Paris, emphasizing that now is “not the time” to begin lifting sanctions on Russia. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the group aims to increase sanctions to “support the US initiative to bring Russia to the table through further pressure.” What is the US initiative? The US definitely wants a ceasefire that lasts longer than a business day, and it wants to achieve this without Europe. However, if Russia desires access to SWIFT (as per its latest demand), the US may have to collaborate more closely with the EU.
But based on direct discussions with various seniors in Switzerland the Europeans are still seeing a red mist and willing to let their industries die. But those who lead industries are so so ready to buy gas and forgive all. Note what the CEO of Total said yesterday about opening up but he is not the only one, he is just one willing to speak publicly.

After a well-behaved trading session yesterday, PC and ADNOC crossed paths in the Dubai market and inverted the market again! Clearly nobody cares about an orderly market. Anybody who cares about things working properly awake anywhere or distorting in markets is an acceptable practice in key oil markets? ADNOC placed a bid at $74.80 immediately after PC offered at $74.75. Meanwhile, the Dubai physical premium hit its March high of $1.70… only to trip and fall 20c today to $1.50. And bam, they crossed again! A major told The Officials, “Ridiculous, how a producer bids and does not trade for the grade they produce and makes up the OSP”.

Brent futures soared to above $74 in a sudden afternoon rally, hitting $74.16/bbl at 15:51 GMT like a market jolted awake, then declined back to $73.92/bbl by close. The trigger? A Black Sea ceasefire announcement that lasted about as long as a Snapchat story.
After three days of tough negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea – or so the US thought. Within hours of the US announcing this agreement, the Kremlin said it would only commit to doing so once sanctions on several Russian banks were lifted. These demands include a restoration of the state agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank’s access to Swift, which would require EU approval….oh boy, will this get dragged on.