Tuesdays are for Trade Ideas
January 2, 2024
The freshest trade ideas of 2024 – This week’s edition includes a review of our PnL from December 2023 alongside previous months’ PnL from 2023.
Reports
Industry-leading market insights. Get daily, weekly and monthly reports from Onyx Research, featuring expert analysis and interactive graphs.
Buy the leak, sell the news
December 22, 2023
Last week we saw the naphtha EW roof, fuelled by the skyrocketing TC5 freight rate (which passes through the Bab al-Mandab strait, the bottleneck of the Red Sea). Turmoil in the Red Sea has allowed for the TC5 freight rate
Oil goes up over ongoing disruption and Angolan exit
December 22, 2023
The market seems to dismiss the importance Angola’s exit from OPEC as the country represented a small portion of the overall output, at about 1.1mbpd, compared to the 28mbpd produced by the group…
Dan-got(e) Fuel?
December 21, 2023
Nigeria’s Dangote refinery recently acquired 1mbbls of oil from the state-owned NNPC, its second crude oil cargo this month. What does this mean for movements in oil as we know them?
Prompt Brent Futures Hovering Around $80/bbl mark
December 21, 2023
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has remained relatively rangebound this morning, falling no lower than $79/bbl. It managed to surpass the $80/bbl mark at 09:00 GMT to reach $80.10/bbl, before it retraced back down to $79.94/bbl
3,000+ Nautical Mile Detour for Ships Avoiding Red Sea
December 19, 2023
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a major rally this afternoon, strengthening by almost $2/bbl from $77.62/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $79.52/bbl at 16:35 GMT. Brent approaches the $80/bbl mark once again as continuous attacks
This Christmas, We’re Buying Boxes Instead of Wrapping Them
December 19, 2023
As the Advent doors continue to be opened, players were out doing some intense Christmas shopping, with Dec 12 the clear day when Brent/Dubai boxes went on sale. Trade houses were seen buying across the curve, with Jan Brent/Dubai rallying
Tuesdays are for Trade Ideas
December 19, 2023
Onyx’s Research team brings you new speculative trades every Tuesday based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
Supply Disruption over Red Sea Attacks
December 18, 2023
Crude strength came in the context of the Yemeni Houthi militant group’s attacks disrupting international trade.
Brent net positioning falls to lowest since 2022
December 18, 2023
Brent and WTI both saw increased shorts and decreased length for a third consecutive week in the week to Dec 12 with lacklustre demand in oil continuing to dampen market sentiment.
Goldman Cuts its 2024 Brent Forecast
December 18, 2023
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a sell off this morning, falling from highs of $77.39/bbl at 06:55 GMT to $76.08/bbl at 10:00 GMT. Goldman Sachs group has cut its Brent forecast for 2024 by
Fear of Attack sees Maersk Halt Container Ships in Red Sea
December 15, 2023
The Red Sea is vital for the transportation of Oil and Gas, with reduced transits already in place at the Panama Canal, this could see Eastern LPG rip higher. This presents a good opportunity to get short the LST/FEI arb.
Jan/Feb EBOB takes home $35,000
December 15, 2023
Onyx Brokerage have come up with another winner through longing the Jan/Feb European gasoline spread, netting a profit of $35,000 after a recommended entry at $3.75/mt and securing gains at $2.00/mt.
High and low sulphur fortnight review
December 15, 2023
Corrective support came to the HSFO complex after a spell of weakness in the fortnight, which was similarly seen in the VLSFO market as Al-Zour came back online.
Crude on Track for First Weekly Gain in Eight-Weeks
December 15, 2023
The crude futures have been choppy all week and by Friday morning we saw levels largely trading around the $76-77/bbl handles. Brent prices sank to their lowest since June on Tuesday after being sold off to $73.24/bbl. With the US
