Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in fuel oil, naphtha, and NGL swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has seen weakness today, trading from an overnight high of $75.25/bbl at 04:45 GMT down to $74.65/bbl at 10:05 GMT, recovering to $74.75/bbl by 10:45 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, the UN
The naphtha complex maintained strength this fortnight in both regions with M1 cracks remaining near highs reaching mid-month. The threat of the re-emergence of Russian naphtha is yet to materialise with a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia still in
Apr’25 Brent futures saw marginal strength this afternoon, trading from $74.55/bbl at 1200 GMT to $74.70/bbl at 1735 GMT. Crude oil prices have seen bullish sentiment after the US imposed a fresh round of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry, hitting
After the Apr’25 Brent futures contract briefly touched above the $77/bbl mark on 20 Feb, the prompt contract has seen lacklustre start to the week, swiftly falling to $74.40/bbl by 1300 GMT on 24 Feb (time of writing). Apr’25 Brent
The front-month Brent futures contract rallied from around $74.40/bbl on 17 Feb to a weekly high surpassing $77/bbl on 20 Feb. The contract dropped to circa $74.20/bbl the following day and stood at $74.50/bbl on 24 Feb at the time
In the week ending 18 Feb, combined open interest (OI) across both Brent and WTI futures climbed for a second consecutive week, increasing just under 22mb (+0.5%) w/w. This was a more modest rise compared to a 67mb (+1.6%)
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has seen strength this morning, increasing from $74.15/bbl at 0815 GMT up to $74.75/bbl at 1015 GMT, before tapering to $74.60/bbl at 1045 GMT (time of writing). Overall, speculators are becoming less optimistic on crude
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price dropped to around $76.15/bbl at 1400 GMT to $74.90/bbl at 1715 GMT (time of writing) as it broke back below the 50-day moving average today. JODI data reported that China’s total product demand fell
Brent rally? Aaaaaand it’s gone. Brent crude futures is on track to see a small gain w/w, as the Apr’25 contract rose from $74.50/bbl on 17 Feb to $77/bbl by 20 Feb before correcting lower to $75/bbl by 16:00 GMT
The Mar’25 TTF futures contract rallied to over €58/MWh on 10 Feb, its highest level since January 2023, amid greater withdrawals from European gas storage and colder weather, but it has since retraced to €47.50/MWh on 20 Feb. The soon-to-be-prompt
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has seen weakness this morning, trading from $76.25/bbl at 0700 GMT down to $75.80/bbl at 1045 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have continued to see bearish sentiment following the 4.63mb build in US
The Apr’25 Brent Futures contract was rangebound this afternoon, trading between $76.25/bbl and $76.60/bbl until around 16:00 GMT, after which it rallied to $77.02/bbl, where it sits at the time of writing (17:20 GMT). EIA statistics highlighted a 4.63mb build
Front-month Brent futures has been more supported this week. We initially oscillated between $74 and $75/bbl before breaking into the $76/bbl handle. The $77/bbl handle remains a critical resistance level, which the M1 futures contract is now flirting with at
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
