After a relatively rangebound week to Jan 11 for Feb Brent/Dubai, oscillating around the 30c/bbl mark, price action soared – rising over 80c/bbl in less than a week to reach highs of 102c/bbl on Jan 16. Jan 12 was the catalyst rising over 50c/bbl intraday.
The Brent futures have been coming off overall throughout the day, reaching lows of $76.87/bbl at 13:00 GMT. The contract then retraced higher, trading at $78.14/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing).
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen weakness this morning, falling from highs of $78.62/bbl at 07:25 GMT to $77.80/bbl come 10:10 GMT. Following on the US and British forces launching airstrikes against the Houthi rebels
A look into the financial flows and market fundamentals for this fortnight in fuel oil.
Brent prices were largely trading slightly upwards of this range, between the levels of $76-78/bbl, they surged into $80 territory on Jan 12 and currently (as of 16:45 GMT) sit at $78.60/bbl.
A year review of how fluctuating trends in oil derivatives compare to the performance of some Premier League football clubs in 2023.
The Brent futures have strengthened over the last couple of hours to two-week highs, trading at highs of $79.04/bbl at 16:23 GMT. At 17:00 GMT (time of writing), the contract is trading at $78.53/bbl.
ONYX CFTC PREDICTOR – In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a volatile morning. Initial support was seen with prices rising from $76.84/bbl at 03:00 GMT to $77.49/bbl at 07:15 GMT. Prices then swiftly retraced to $76.82/bbl at 08:40 GMT,
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively volatile afternoon, initially rising over $1/bbl from $77.65/bbl at 12:10 GMT, to highs of $78.67/bbl at 15:10 GMT, before retracing back lower, down to $77.20/bbl at 16:15
The Brent futures contract has been held steady above the $77/bbl mark today, trading at $77.07/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing), on the back of market participants trying to price in the geopolitical risk premium.
European gasoline saw initial weakness which turned into strength on the back of trade houses buying aggressively with more than 470kbbls worth of positions in the Feb EBOB crack bought from Onyx on Jan 02, prompting prices to reach highs of $10.91/bbl on Jan 05. Prices have since come off amid less buy-side flows and trade houses flipping to the sell-side on Jan 08.
With 2023 behind us the oil markets are already looking ahead to uncharted territory, with Brent forecasts for Q1’24 ranging from $78.61/bbl to $94/bbl there promises to be a tumultuous few months ahead as traders come back from the holidays
