Raid the Bull Market Armoury and Prepare for Carnage
Raid the Bull Market Armoury and Prepare for Carnage – Finally, things are coherent in the oil markets.
Raid the Bull Market Armoury and Prepare for Carnage – Finally, things are coherent in the oil markets.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract initially saw a slight pull back and dipped to below the $89/bbl mark in the early hours. However with the prospect of war still very apparent, the contract has strengthened once again surpassing the $90/bbl mark at 08:45 BST and reaching highs of $90.67/bbl at 10:30 BST.
For the week to Apr 02, the combined positions by money managers in Brent and WTI showed a return to bullish positioning, overall.
Technical indicators for the current period highlight contrasting trends across product groups. Brent’s RSI remains in overbought territory, reflecting recent sharp price increases tempered by easing Middle East tensions. Gasoil shows renewed strength, with a firm RSI and widening Bollinger
Oil prices clocked in a momentous week with the June Brent futures contract jumping from $88.80/bbl at 17:00 BST on Apr 04 to the sanctified $90/bbl marker just two hours later and ending the week coming close to $92/bbl.
The Brent futures flat price for the Jun contract reached a low of $90.62/bbl at 13:20 BST before retracing and reaching $91.25/bbl around 14:25 BST. Flat price then slipped back down to $90.69/bbl by 14:55 BST and then found support once more up to $91.59/bbl by 16:20 BST.
Prompt Brent crude futures flat price strengthened overnight from $89/bbl handles at 17:00 BST, surpassing $91/bbl but coming off to $90.78/bbl handles at 10:00 BST, heading for a second weekly gain.
The HSFO market saw weakness in both regions as cracks capitulated once below -$10/bbl, with the European crack finding lows of -$13.30/bbl. Trade houses were on the sell-side whilst a well-offered physical amplified the weakness in the paper.
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Prompt Brent futures flat price has witnessed a relatively weak afternoon period. Prices initially fell to lows of $88.89/bbl at 13:50 BST, however, this level enticed some buying interest supporting the contract back to low $89/bbl handles.
Seems like the sceptics who scoffed at the mere mention of $100/bbl Brent earlier this year are now probably eating their words as we inch closer to the $90/bbl mark.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively weaker morning. Price action was initially stable around the $89.60/bbl mark in the early hours of the morning, however, since then prices have sold off slightly to $89.17/bbl at 10:40 BST.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The Jun Brent futures contract strengthened into the afternoon with prices rising to $89.95/bbl around 15:20 BST but subsequently easing off to $89.70/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing).
The June Brent futures contract has seen a strong morning, opening around $89/bbl levels before seeing a small correction down to $88.70/bbl at 08:45 BST before rebounding and rallying up to $89.30/bbl levels at 10:30 BST.