Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
Although Lebron James recently hit the milestone of 40,000 points in the NBA, North Sea crude bulls are still stanning Michael Jordan in the GOAT debate. For the Dated Brent Bulls have had an impressive start to the year and are looking to carry the momentum into the spring playoffs despite refinery maintenance headwinds.
We do, finally, seem to be, genuinely, I think, getting out of this yawn-inducing range on Brent futures.
The gasoline complex has seen bears entering the market although prices still seem to be supported to some extent. Here is a summary of what happened:
The May Brent futures has slightly softened this morning with the contract opening below the $83/bbl mark and hovering around the same levels for the rest of the morning. At 10:00 GMT (time of writing), the contract was seen trading at $82.75/bbl.
The May Brent futures contract has experienced a mixed afternoon, rallying up from $83.01/bbl at 12:30 GMT, before seeing rejection at resistance levels around $84/bbl come 14:30 GMT and subsequently correcting downwards to trade at $82.75/bbl at the time of writing (17:20 GMT).
Last week, the futures market was supported overall with an overall strong crude market as well as some gains in American gasoline. Here is a summary of what happened:
For the week to Feb 27, crude futures overall displayed a more bullish outlook for a third consecutive week.
The strength seen last week has continued, with May Brent futures starting the week in the $84/bbl handles, marking a 2.3% increase week-on-week.
The strength that was seen last week has continued, with May Brent futures starting the week in the $84/bbl handles, representing a 2.3% increase week-on-week. At 10:30 (time of writing), the May contract softened to $83.81/bbl.
The May Brent futures contract has been constantly shooting up over the day, crossing the $84.00/bbl mark at 16:20 GMT and trading at highs of $84.31/bbl at 16:55 GMT. The contract then softened down to $83.81/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). May WTI futures saw similar upward momentum and the contract was seen at $79.80/bbl at 17:00 GMT.
These last two weeks in LNG: we saw a weak start to the fortnight in the LNG complex, continuing the bearish trend observed since the start of the winter. Apr TTF reached down to a 2.5-year low of around €23.60/MWh on Feb 23. Apr JKM also weakened to around $8.05/MMBtu on Feb 22. Storage continued to be above historical averages with Europe seeing stocks at seasonal highs, currently at 63% of full capacity. Read more in our LNG Report.
The now-prompt May Brent futures contract briefly plummeted to $81.85/bbl but saw a significant surge upwards to levels surpassing $83/bbl at 10:15 GMT.
The May Brent futures contract has strengthened ahead of the Apr contract’s expiry, climbing from below $82/bbl at noon today to $82.40/bbl as of 17:15 GMT.
The market has been uninspired over the last week across the oil complex, a bit like the dull Tarantino movie “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” amid a now-ended IP week, which dried up markets and overflowed the Mayfair pubs. Despite the mundane narrative thus far, attentive traders will know to stick till the end of the show.
After seeing a small slump from the day previous, the May Brent futures traded below the $82/bbl mark, softening to lows of $81.54/bbl at 8:50am GMT and trading at $81.85/bbl at 9:50 GMT (time of writing). May WTI futures were trading at $78.33/bbl at 8:50 GMT after seeing the same change in price action.
Having edged above the $83/bbl handles in the day, the May Brent futures contract seems poised to end the afternoon lower, trading at $82.10/bbl at 16.45 GMT. EIA stats released in the afternoon saw US crude inventories rise by over
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Rangebound prices have been the outcome of the fortnight. Volatility is down and players have been all but absent, celebrating the Lunar New Year and the in-progress IE week.
The May Brent futures contract rose into the afternoon, climbing from $81.30/bbl handles at noon today to $82.20/bbl as of 17:15 GMT (time of writing). WTI futures for the same tenor clocked in similar strength, moving from around $76.80/bbl at noon to $77.70/bbl at 17:15 GMT.
