Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
This past fortnight has seen a very much supported naphtha complex, in both regions. After initially falling behind, the East caught up with Europe in the middle of the two weeks, before further strength from Europe was witnessed.
The past week in the North Sea crude market has been rather dramatic…
The May Brent futures contract has seen mixed price action this afternoon, initially around $82.19/bbl at noon before experiencing a sell-off down to $81.74/bbl, and subsequently rallying to $82.33/bbl at the time of writing (17:20 GMT).
Following our previous report, OPEC subsequently announced on March 3rd that they would be extending their cuts from the first quarter of 2024 into Q2 2024. This development, despite wide speculations that the cuts would be maintained, was evidently not
New week, new Alpha – Onyx Alpha will publish speculative and hedging trades every Tuesday based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods based on Onyx’s Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen an overall strong morning. Price action initially found stability in the mid $82/bbl-handles, before rallying to $83.01/bbl at 08:10 GMT.
The May Brent futures has seen a great deal of volatility this afternoon with prices reaching lows of $81.10/bbl at 14:10 GMT although strengthened to $82.72/bbl at 16:25 GMT. At 17:00 (time of writing), the contract was seen trading at $82.49/bbl.
For the week to Mar 05, crude futures overall displayed a more risk off approach with a slight bearish bias, after having adopted a bullish outlook for the previous 3 weeks.
In this weeks Futures report, technical indicators were slightly more bullish in the past week in Brent, Gasoil and RBOB with prices generally seeing an upward trend and the RSI’s overall around or above 50.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively strong morning.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a quieter afternoon after the sell-off witnessed this morning.
The HSFO complex has overall strengthened over the past fortnight, with notable strength concentrated in the East. In contrast, the East saw a rather bearish week in VLSFO with the Sing 0.5% structure selling off rapidly on the back of physical selling from a trade house as well as stop outs in spreads.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a volatile morning. Price action initially strengthened from $83.26/bbl handles at 07:45 GMT to reach highs of $83.83/bbl at 09:25 GMT, however since then, price action has collapsed, falling to $83.09/bbl at 10:05 GMT.
The May Brent futures has seen a volatile afternoon with prices reaching lows of $82.10/bbl at 14:10 GMT although strengthened to $83.07/bbl at 16:25 GMT. At 17:00 (time of writing), the contract was seen trading at $82.94/bbl.
The Brent complex saw initial support stemming from renewed tensions in the Middle East as well as bullish fundamentals including a strong demand for prompt crude.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively choppy, yet weak, morning. Price action weakened from $83/bbl handles at 06:35 GMT to $82.34/bbl at 09:55 GMT, despite a small spike to $82.82/bbl at 09:30 GMT.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight publishes its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report.
Prompt Brent futures flat price has seen a stronger afternoon, rising from $82.50/bbl handles at around midday to highs of $84/bbl at 16:20 GMT, before softening slightly to $83.62 at 16:55 GMT.
The May Brent futures has been strengthening throughout the start of the day well above the $82/bbl mark. At 10:30 (time of writing), the contract was seen trading at $82.68/bbl.
May Brent futures saw price action at $82.60/bbl at noon, followed by a steady correction down to $81.78/bbl handles around 13:20 GMT, and subsequently a mixed afternoon to settle around $82.36/bbl levels at the time of writing, 17:00 GMT.
