Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
The May Brent futures contract opened around low $87/bbl levels this morning, and has corrected slightly lower since, settling around $86.72/bbl at the time of writing (10:10 GMT).
In January, we saw a very bullish market, with genuine supply tightness, and what we ended up with was a market that jumped the gun, and got too short too soon ahead of maintenance.
This afternoon witnessed another win for the crude bulls amid the May Brent futures contract rallying to $87.60/bbl at 17:25 GMT (time of writing). The contract hit its highest value since October 2023.
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The May Brent futures contract has seen a quiet start in the early hours of the morning at around $86.70/bbl levels before seeing volatility enter the market from around 07:00 GMT, with prices oscillating between $86.92/bbl and $86.49/bbl at 09:00 GMT, and sitting at $86.58/bbl at the time of writing (10:45 GMT).
Onyx Alpha will publish speculative and hedging trades every week based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods.
Prompt Brent futures flat price has witnessed a strong, yet volatile, afternoon period with prices supported from lows of $85.47/bbl at 12:50 GMT to print at $86.59/bbl at 16:50 GMT.
For the week to Mar 12, the crude futures witnessed an atmosphere of bearishness from money managers. Total long positions in Brent and WTI declined by 12.5mbbls (-2.40%) whilst total short positions climbed by 3.5mbbls (+3.04%).
After surging to four-month highs towards the end of last week, May Brent futures started the week in a similar vein, strengthening to briefly surpass the $86/bbl mark and record a near 5% increase week-on-week.
The May Brent futures contract clocked in a volatile morning today with prices surging up to $86.20/bbl at 08:50 GMT, dropping to $85.80/bbl handles around 09:10 GMT but ultimately correcting upwards, hovering just below $86/bbl at 10:20 GMT.
Crude flat price remained supported above $85/bbl levels on Friday afternoon, trading at $85.33/bbl at 17:20 GMT. Prices saw a very comfortable weekly gain, topping $85/bbl for the first time since November.
Brent crude flat price inched lower into Friday, pairing back from four-month highs, as some players look to take profit on their length, while a stronger dollar added some slight pressure.
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An exemplary day for the crude bulls as Brent flat price rallied sharply, breaking into $85/bbl handles, hovering around $85.45/bbl at the time of writing (16.50 GMT).
Just when we were lamenting the sideways action in crude flat price this year, Brent broke out to the upside on Wednesday as prices reached four-month highs at the $85/bbl level. The stars aligned this week as tightening supply around
May Brent futures opened around $84/bbl in the early hours of the morning before rallying up to $84.53/bbl at 08:10 GMT and then swiftly correcting down to $84.17 by 08:40 GMT.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publishes its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data
Prompt Brent futures flat price has maintained the levels established after this mornings strength, with prices oscillating in the mid $83/bbl handles, before more recent support has seen the contract trend towards the $84/bbl mark, reaching $83.89/bbl at 17:00 GMT.
The LST/FEI arb continued its bearish trend, falling below -$200/mt amidst mounting pressure in US structure, with the physical being well offered. Last week, LST was the driver of arb movement, where the Apr/May spread has fallen from 4.5c/gal to
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen an overall strong morning. Price action initially weakened to below the $82/bbl mark at 08:35 GMT, inspiring some buying interest as the contract rallied to reach $83/bbl at 10:05 GMT.
