Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
In the week ending 27 Jan, the soon-to-be-prompt Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened from an intraday high of $79.80/bbl on 20 Jan to briefly hitting $76.90/bbl on 24 Jan before climbing to $77.90/bbl by 11:30 GMT on 27 Jan (time of writing)
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract gapped down this morning, where it met support above $77.50/bbl between 0100 and 0220 GMT before seeing greater support into the morning. The prompt has now inched up to just shy of $78.85/bbl at 1042 GMT (time of writing), as it fails to surpass Friday’s strongest intraday level. President Trump’s brief proposal of a 25% tariff on Colombian goods, following Colombia’s refusal to accept deported migrants, raised concerns, and this escalation temporarily increased demand for safe-haven assets, including the dollar. However, the situation de-escalated as the White House halted the measures after the South American country agreed to Trump’s conditions. Following the open letter from the API last week, Mark Scholz, the president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC), has also come out against the inclusion of oil and gas tariffs. “Both of our economies, particularly when it comes to energy, are highly integrated and highly efficient”. The Sudanese army has secured the 100kb/d al-Jaili oil refinery’s perimeter after regaining control from the RSF, though fires—spreading from storage tanks to production units due to insufficient firefighting resources—have continued burning for five days, marking the facility’s most severe blaze since the conflict began. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.03/bbl and $4.33/bbl, respectively.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract softened from $78.90/bbl at 1300 GMT to a low of sub-$78.00/bbl levels at 1615 GMT before rising to around $78.20/bbl at 1725 GMT (time of writing). Crude and gasoline prices dropped to two-week lows today, showing moderate declines. Crude oil faced pressure following remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who expressed willingness to discuss Ukraine and oil prices with President Trump, reducing concerns about potential additional US sanctions on Russian crude. Shell is set to report a lower annual profit for 2024, impacted by weak oil prices and declining demand for fossil fuels. The company is expected to announce earnings of £24.1 billion, down from £28.3 billion in 2023. The US Dollar Index dipped below 107.50 on Friday, facing intraday losses and a five-week low after US President Trump raised doubts about applying tariffs on China following a call with President Xi Jinping. The Bank of Japan’s 25 basis point rate hike significantly weakened the USD against the Japanese Yen (JPY). Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated today that India will continue purchasing discounted crude oil from Russia, emphasizing the government’s commitment to securing economically priced oil. He noted that India’s imports from Russia have risen from 0.2% in February 2022 to 30%. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.90/bbl and $3.79/bbl, respectively.
Newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order directing the federal government to prioritise the development and production of natural resources in Alaska, including the nation’s LNG project, citing their “critical national importance” and “economic and national security benefits.”
Taking Off Risk On Monday, we forecast that the M1 Brent futures contract will be between $78 and $81/bbl at the end of the week. At 12:45 GMT (time of writing), the contract is around the lower end of this
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract fell to $77.60/bbl at around 0100 GMT before it gained better strength, and the prompt rose to $78.55/bbl at 1005 GMT, the time of writing . Looking at the daily chart, the 21-day moving average has acted as support this morning. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports rose by 281 kb/d to a seven-month high of 6.21 mb/d, even as crude production declined by 47 kb/d and refinery runs dropped by 383 kb/d. Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking to business and world leaders in Davos, urged Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices to help end the Russia-Ukraine war. He criticized President Joe Biden’s “failed policies” for contributing to “economic chaos” in the U.S. Trump argued that high crude prices are sustaining Moscow’s war efforts, stating, “You gotta bring down the oil price. That will end that war. You could end that war.”. Trump also referenced the Keystone XL pipeline, suggesting its revival as an opportunity after its cancellation under Biden. However, developers are reportedly no longer interested, and the process of restarting the Canada-U.S. pipeline project would need to begin anew. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.80/bbl and $3.73/bbl, respectively.Secretary General Mark Rutte called for the US to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine and said Europe will provide funding, as per Reuters. The NATO chief said the alliance must invest more and ramp up defence industrial production. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.76/bbl and $3.85/bbl, respectively.
Brent softened this week as disbelief continued to be suspended for the promised (read: threatened) tariffs from the US, and the market digested and rebalanced following the rally to over $82.00/bbl last week on the news of new sanctions on Russia and Venezuela that included the Russian dark fleet.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract initially saw strength this afternoon, steadily climbing to $79.60/bbl around 1515 GMT, however, prices sold-off shortly after 1610 GMT down to $78.10/bbl at 1640 GMT, retracing to $78.65/bbl at 1735 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices faced bearish sentiment after US President Trump urged OPEC to lower oil prices and reiterated his tariff threats, as per Bloomberg. Trump also pledged to ensure Europe’s energy security while asserting that the US no longer needed Canadian oil and gas. Meanwhile, EIA data released today at 1700 GMT for the week to 17 Jan showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.02mb. In the news today, Donald Trump’s tariff threats aimed at strongarming Russia into ending the war in Ukraine have been badly received by some Russian politicians, with Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, stating Trump’s actions suggested he would not be able to bring peace to Ukraine, according to Reuters. In other news, a large part of Russia’s oil tanker fleet is being forced to change the flag they sail under after pressure from US and UK sanctions, as per Bloomberg. The Barbados ship registry said that by the end of January it will have asked 46 ships to remove the country’s flag as a result of the sanctions, while Panama’s ship registry said earlier this month it had begun to de-list 68 US-sanctioned vessels. In macroeconomic news, US jobless claims data released at 1330 GMT today edged higher to 223k, compared to a forecast of 221k. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.78/bbl and $3.69/bbl, respectively.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract has seen strength this morning, increasing from $78.60/bbl at 0700 GMT up to $79.25/bbl at 0905 GMT, before tapering off to $79.15/bbl at 1100 GMT (time of writing). API data showed that US crude inventories rose by 0.96mb in the week ending 17 Jan, compared to an API draw of 2.6mb the week prior. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories increased by 3.23mb and distillates stocks rose by 1.88mb. In the news today, Asian refiners, including Chinese teapots and processors in Singapore and South Korea, are either cutting rates or considering it after US sanctions on Russia hiked crude oil prices, as per Bloomberg. Independent refiners in Shandong province, China, are the hardest hit after sanctions crippled flows of ESPO from the Pacific port of Kozmino, with run rates at these refineries recorded at around 50.7% this week. In other news, Indian refiner Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) has been unable to get Russian crude cargoes for March delivery, highlighting the impact of stringent US sanctions, Bloomberg reports. BPCL’s finance chief, Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta, said “crude availability is not an issue” during an analyst conference call, but “only the commercial benefits of Russian crude may not be available”. Finally, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called for the US to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine and said Europe will provide funding, as per Reuters. The NATO chief said the alliance must invest more and ramp up defence industrial production. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.76/bbl and $3.85/bbl, respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
After this morning’s strength, Mar’25 Brent futures declined from just under $79.90/bbl at 1120 GMT down to this afternoon’s low of $78.87/bbl at 1500 GMT, recovering to $79.45/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment amid waning geopolitical risk, with the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire likely to be extended beyond next week, as per Bloomberg. In the news today, US President Donald Trump said he would add new tariffs to his sanctions threat against Russia if the country does not make a deal to end the war in Ukraine, Reuters reports. Trump added that tariffs could also be applied to “other participating countries”, currently threatening a 10% tariff on China. In other news, Motiva’s 630kb/d Port Arthur refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast has shut multiple units due to winter storms. Meanwhile, the ports of Houston and Galveston remain shut as Freeport opens, as per Bloomberg. Finally, CNOOC said today that its net oil and gas production was about 720mb of oil equivalent for 2024, setting a record high for the sixth consecutive year. The company aims to maintain stable capital expenditure for 2025 while reaching a net production target of 760mb to 780mb. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.88/bbl and $4.17/bbl, respectively.
Mar’25 Brent futures softened overnight to below $79.00/bbl at 0700 GMT before seeing some strength this morning to highs of over $79.90/bbl at around 1100 GMT, softening to $79.55/bbl at 1200 GMT at the time of writing. Kazakhstan plans to deliver up to 127,000 tons of oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline in January. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose to 6.26 mb/d, the highest level in eight months, despite a 2.05% year-on-year decline. Meanwhile, Saudi crude production reached 8.92 mb/d in November, representing a 1.21% y/y increase, according to JODI Data. Turkey showed readiness to expand gas exports to Europe, proposing an increase to up to 10 bcm per year. However, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar noted that this would require significant investments to enhance pipeline connections with Greece and Bulgaria. Indonesia will exempt oil and gas exporters from a new rule requiring natural resource export proceeds to stay onshore for a year. Set to take effect on March 1, the rule applies to exports worth $250,000 or more. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.94/bbl and $4.35/bbl, respectively.
The North Sea physical differential strengthened above $0.80/bbl last week but has since petered out, dropping to $0.69/bbl on 20 Jan. 20 Jan also saw five offers for WTI Midland in the window from Eni, Unipec, Shell and two offers from Gunvor, who interestingly was buying cargoes before this. We saw no bids in the window for the first time since 3 Jan.
The Mar’25 Brent futures flat price clawed higher on Tuesday afternoon, rising from $78.50/bbl at 14:00 GMT to nearly $79.60/bbl by 16:45 GMT before falling to $79.16/bbl by 17:40 GMT (time of writing). In the news, a rare winter storm across the U.S. South has disrupted natural gas and oil production, strained the Texas power grid, and halted LNG exports. Despite the Houthis’ announced pullback, insurers remain reluctant to cover Red Sea transit due to ongoing security risks, delaying a full return to the Suez Canal route and keeping freight rates elevated, though a gradual decline is expected. Trump’s tariff threats on Canadian oil have widened the gap between U.S. and Canadian energy stocks, with Toronto-listed names underperforming as investors shy away from policy uncertainty, while analysts warn of further downside if tariffs are implemented. Serica Energy remains committed to investing in the UK North Sea despite high taxes, seeing opportunities in the market, but emphasises the need for a more sustainable tax regime to support long-term oil and gas development. U.S. energy mergers may slow in 2025 as deal sizes shrink due to fewer available targets and regulatory delays, but smaller and mid-cap producers are still expected to pursue M&A for scale, with cost-saving measures like longer laterals helping to improve drilling economics. Finally, the front (Mar/Apr) and 6-month (Mar/Sep) Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $4.05/bbl respectively.
The Mar’25 RBOB futures outright price reached above the upper Bollinger band on 15 Jan to a high of $2.20/gal and has since corrected to $2.14/gal on 21 Jan. The cracks have been fairly robust, and the Mar’25 RBOB futures crack (RBBR) has been gaining strength slowly this month as it rose from seeing support at the lower Bollinger band on 10 Jan to seeing some trepidation at the 20-day moving average on 20 Jan, although it broke past this on 21 Jan, to $10.35/bbl at the time of writing.
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in distillates, gasoline, and LPG swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract has been on a downward trajectory since hitting an overnight peak of around $80.45/bbl at 0220 GMT, trading steadily down to $79.00/bbl at 1050 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment after US President Trump declared a national energy emergency yesterday as part of his plan to boost domestic oil and gas production. In his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order repealing Biden’s efforts to block oil drilling in the Arctic and US coastline, also stating he intends to fill the SPR “right to the top”. In addition, Trump ordered the US withdrawal from the Paris climate deal and suspended new federal offshore wind leasing. In the news today, President Trump said he planned to impose previously threatened tariffs of as much as 25% on Mexico and Canada by Feb 1, due to the fact “they’re allowing vast numbers of people” into the US, as per Bloomberg. In other news, Indian refiners MRPL and Bharat Petroleum Corp issued tenders this week seeking crude oil after US sanctions on Russian crude. MRPL issued its first crude import tender in more than a year, seeking offers of 1-2mb to be delivered 16-28 Feb, open to offers of both sweet and sour crude, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, BPCL is seeking 12mb of Abu Dhabi’s flagship Murban crude in an annual tender, planning to buy 1mb per month from April 2025 to March 2026. Finally, at the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.86/bbl and $4.17/bbl, respectively.
The Mar’25 Brent futures contract started to recover this afternoon, strengthening around 50c since this morning up to $80.93/bbl at 1325 GMT. However, Brent flat price then sold-off at US open (1330 GMT) down to $79.45/bbl around 1400 GMT, retracing to $80.08/bbl at 1750 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have continued to decline as traders anticipate policy announcements from US President Donald Trump, including plans to boost domestic oil production and resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the news today, Chinese crude imports from Russia rose by 1% y/y to a record high of 2.17mb/d, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed. Higher imports from Russia potentially demonstrate Chinese refiners’ appetite for cheap cargoes amid weak refining margins. Meanwhile, crude imports from Saudi Arabia dipped by 9% y/y to 1.57mb/d. In other news, Chevron has expressed interest in oil and gas exploration offshore Greece, the Greek Ministry of Energy and Environment stated today. Greece said that it would imminently announce an international tender and decide on the particular area designated for exploration this week. Finally, the cost to hire an oil supertanker on key routes to China has doubled since the newly imposed US sanctions on Russia, as per Bloomberg. Daily rates for VLCCs on the Middle East-to-China route (TD3C) surged 112% to $57.6k in the week to 17 Jan, while rates on the US Gulf-to-China route (TD22) soared 102% to around $55.5k. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.99/bbl and $4.70/bbl, respectively.
Bye Bye Biden The M1 Brent futures contract surged to its highest level since July last week but has since softened to $80.80/bbl at 12:45 GMT (time of writing). We expect the M1 contract to end the week between $78
In the week to 20 Jan, the Mar’25 Brent futures saw a narrow trading range, with prices correcting from overbought levels, closing at $80.50/bbl as bullish momentum slowed (RSI dropped from 84 to 66). Open interest declined sharply, likely due to profit-taking and hesitancy ahead of President Trump’s inauguration.
