Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
The July Brent futures flat price has had an action-packed afternoon. Having initially found resistance at $85.30/bbl, prices dropped to $84.80/bbl, before immediately rallying to the afternoon’s high of $85.80/bbl. Subsequently, from 15:30 BST onwards, the price collapsed below $84/bbl and is hovering around $83.75/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing).
The buyside players in previous physical windows were notably absent in the cash on expiry day, showing that the bullish sentiment was just not it.
The July Brent futures flat price reached a peak of $87.75/bbl at 13:45 BST before collapsing to a low of $85.46 at 14:40 BST. Since then it has retraced higher and is currently hovering around $86.20/bbl handles.
EBOB cracks saw a fortnight of two halves with the Jun crack first selling off and then recovering to $23.40/bbl come Apr 29.
The July Brent futures flat price has been well-supported this morning following a rangebound night and a subsequent drop. Between 01:00-06:00 BST prices hovered between $87.00-$87.20/bbl, after which a low of $86.84/bbl was reached at 06:45 BST. Subsequently a rally to $87.40/bbl handles has been seen at 10:55 BST.
With another week comes a fresh slew of trade ideas by Onyx Research.
The July Brent futures flat price has seen a downturn this afternoon, with price action initially rising to $88.20/bbl at 12:50 BST, before dropping as low as $87.08/bbl at 16:00 BST.
For the week to Apr 23, we saw similar positions adopted by bullish money managers across the two benchmarks, whilst their bearish counterparts opposed one another.
Technical indicators show that the July Brent futures contract still trades in the neutral territory although with a low RSI reading and amid narrowing Bollinger bands, signalling limited volatility.
The July Brent futures flat price has seen a slight uptick this morning, with price action initially remaining flat around $87.50/bbl handles between 03:30 and 07:30 BST, before briefly weakening to as low as $87.33/bbl at 07:40 BST. Since then, there has been a minor rally to hit $88.00/bbl at 11:45 BST.
Brent crude futures erased last Friday’s gains amid renewed Israel-Hamas peace talks which has moderated geopolitical tensions. The July contract was trading above $89/bbl handles on Friday before gapping below $88/bbl on Monday, trading at $87.50/bbl by 08:30 BST. Following
The June Brent futures flat price has witnessed a mixed afternoon, with price action initially strengthening to reach a peak of $89.82/bbl at 13:15 BST, before weakening to a low of $88.83/bbl at 15:50 BST.
German gas consumption rebounded sharply in the week to Apr 21 due to colder weather, with stocks at 67.2% of capacity compared with 69.1% the previous week.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has witnessed a mixed morning. Price action initially strengthened to reach a peak of $89.68/bbl at 08:15 BST, before retracing to below the $89/bbl mark, printing at $88.97/bbl at 10:05 BST.
June Brent futures flat price fell below $87.40/bbl at 15:50 BST before recovering to around $87.90/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing).
Brent skyrocketed from below $87/bbl at 01:25 BST on Apr 19 to flirting with $91/bbl just two hours later on the back of explosions heard from an Israeli strike on Iranian air space. However, resurrecting doubts regarding whether there is any actual wartime risk left to price, Iran’s downplaying of the incident spooked these bulls away, taking flat price back into its previous ranges.
The prompt Brent Futures contract saw a mixed morning, rising to a high of $88.48/bbl at 08:22 BST before seeing retracement and some consolidation around $88/bbl levels at 10:00 BST.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The Jun Brent futures flat price saw rangebound price action until 15:38 BST, when prices rallied to $88.70/bbl only to drop below $87.80/bbl at 16:10 BST.
The May LST/FEI Arb declined from approximately -$180/mt on Apr 10 to below -$198/mt on Apr 24, driven by weaknesses in LST and strengths in FEI.
