Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
The July Brent Futures flat price has had a weak morning, ticking down consistently since its high of $82.80/bbl at 05:00 BST. Significantly, the morning saw the contract drop into $81/bbl handles, and reach a low of $81.80/bbl at 10:30 BST, from which it has since partially retraced upwards to $82.35/bbl at 11:20 BST.
MurbanMania – Overall bearish price action in Brent/Dubai has been unsurprising and the rolldown is generally expected.
The July Brent Futures flat price has had a choppy afternoon, which it began in $83.00/bbl handles, before dipping twice to $82.55/bbl and $82.45/bbl at 14:05 BST and 15:45 BST, respectively.
This past fortnight has seen naphtha in Asia and Europe rally into May before finally reaching a plateau in the past week as the rally ran out of steam. Naphtha cracks have reversed from their downtrend seen in the first half of April, with the May NWE crack returning above -$10/bbl.
After a prolonged bull play in the North Sea physical, Gunvor flipped to aggressively selling Midland and Forties cargoes into the new month
With another week comes a fresh slew of trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The July Brent Futures flat price had a rangebound start to the morning, ticking between $83.30/bbl and $83.60/bbl from 05:30 BST to 08:15 BST.
The July Brent futures contract has now reached the $83.30/bbl handle, with bearish sentiment continuing to permeate into markets.
SLINGSHOT…ENGAGED – April was met with a firm brick ceiling of selling, driven by a macro response to an untenable treasury situation as well as de-escalation of tensions that financial money sees very arbitrarily, i.e. either Max Long or get the hell out.
For the week to Apr 30, we saw similar positions adopted by bullish money managers across the two benchmarks, whilst their bearish counterparts took opposing approaches.
Jul Brent crude flat price was supported in the early morning from $83/bbl to $83.65/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing) with low volumes traded due to the UK Bank Holiday.
Technical indicators showed the major futures contracts falling into oversold territory on the back of a waning geopolitical risk premium and poor sentiment out of the US which exacerbated the sell-off. Bollinger bands have widened, indicating a sustained increase in volatility…
The July Brent Futures flat price has had a mixed afternoon. Between 12:00 BST and 13:30 BST it rose steadily to a high of $84.30/bbl before reversing this trend and declining to a low of $83.10/bbl at 15:45 BST.
HSFO was well supported this fortnight until the sell-off in crude from Apr 30 onwards catalysed
overwhelming bearishness in the complex, with this slightly more pronounced in European grades.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has witnessed a weaker morning. Price action initially strengthened to reach a peak of $84.13/bbl at 08:25 BST. However, since then prices have witnessed a downtick to back beneath the $84/bbl mark, reaching $83.61/bbl.
The July Brent Futures flat price has had a fairly volatile afternoon, rising to a high of $84.40/bbl at 13:05 BST, before sinking between 13:05 BST and 16:05 BST to a low of $83.10/bbl.
Crude prices were humbled this week and came back to earth as traders discounted geopolitical risk whilst macroeconomic headwinds lingered.
Following the significant retracement downwards yesterday, the prompt Brent futures contract has seen a steady morning, opening around high $83/bbl levels and gradually gaining to reach $84.39/bbl, before retracing to trade around $84.16/bbl at 10:00 BST.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report.
