Naphtha & Gasoline reports
Please note that these reports will now be published every Thursday.
Geopolitical risk: down but not out We see a firm Brent complex this week. We forecast Dec’24 Brent futures to end the week in the mid-70s, and we anticipate a ceiling of around $78, and $73/bbl acting as a floor.
The Brent futures complex sharply retraced lower last week as the geopolitical risk premia faded on the prospect that Israel’s retaliation strike against Iran will not be targeted towards its oil or nuclear facilities. The week ending 14 Oct saw
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, trading at $73.29/bbl at 07:00 BST and increasing to $74.10/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on
Dec’24 Brent futures weakened this afternoon, from over $74.50/bbl at 13:20 BST to $72.55/bbl at 16:25 BS, recovering $73.25/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). Total is planning a shutdown of its largest European refinery, in Antwerp, in 2025. This
High Sulfur Fuel Oil (HSFO) remains strong this fortnight in both Northwestern Europe (NWE) and Singapore, although we now see increasing volatility in the HSFO complex. The Nov’24 3.5% barge crack rallied to -$7.30/bbl on 14 Oct before simmering off
The Dec’24 Brent crude futures contract cratered by $3 overnight Monday (14 Oct) from around $77.50/bbl to $74.50/bbl, before trading rangebound for the remainder of the week between $74/bbl and $75/bbl. Prices are set for their biggest weekly decline since
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, trading from $74.76/bbl at 07:00 BST and declining to $74.06/bbl at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Prices lacked strength this morning amid reports of Chinese oil refining falling to a three-month
Dec’24 Brent futures fell from close to $80.00/bbl to $74.00/bbl this week as the geopolitical risk premium was priced-out and back in at a rate that puts no one’s mind to rest. As soon as part of the premium has
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract weakened amid choppy price action from $74.39/bbl at 07:00 BST to $74.35/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). Price action showed volatility throughout the morning while Iran issued a warning to Israel against retaliation for
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract continued to weaken this morning, falling from $74.80/bbl at 08:25 BST to briefly dropping below $74/bbl at 10:20 BST. While the benchmark crude futures contract found support here, it fell to $73.88/bbl at 11:35 BST
The gasoline market has shown good strength in the past two weeks. The Dec’24 RBBR rose from below $8.00/bbl on 1 Oct to a high of over $10.25/bbl on 11 Oct before it softened to $9.85/bbl on 15 Oct. The
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October
