Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
The July Brent futures flat price has had a volatile afternoon, initially falling from $83.85/bbl at 12:00 BST down to the afternoon’s low of $83.25/bbl at 14:05 BST, before rallying aggressively to a daily high of $84.45/bbl at 15:05 BST.
Technical indicators indicate an oversold RSI for Brent, ICE gasoil and RBOB gasoline futures alongside flat price that traded below all three contracts’ respective 20-day simple moving averages, flagging bearish short-term momentum. Moreover, Bollinger bands have now widened for the RBOB futures, signalling increased volatility in the contract.
For the week to May 14, we saw differing positions adopted by both prod/merc players and money managers across the two benchmarks.
The July Brent futures flat price has shown signs of weakness this morning following a fairly strong overnight period. Having risen from $84.05/bbl at 06:00 BST to a daily high of $84.45/bbl at 08:00 BST, the prompt contract has since seen a downturn, falling as low as $83.65/bbl as of 11:05 BST (time of writing).
The prompt Brent futures flat price strengthened to $84.30/bbl at the start of the week to May 20 (as of 08:15 BST), supported by political uncertainty in vital oil-producing economies in the Middle East. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, previously seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border.
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The July Brent futures flat price has had a spiky afternoon, which it began by falling to $83.10/bbl at 12:40 BST, from which it rapidly rose to the afternoon’s high of $83.75/bbl at 14:10 BST.
HSFO saw a contrasting performance in Europe and Asia which allowed the 380 E/W to rally significantly.
July Brent futures saw a relatively rangebound week, and remains supported around the $83/bbl handles – where it has been trading since the beginning of May.
The July Brent futures flat price has had a mixed morning, first seeing a rapid uptick from $83.50/bbl at 06:50 BST to $83.85/bbl by 08:05 BST, before softening to $83.15/bbl by 10:40 BST. After this, it has retraced upwards to $83.30/bbl handles, where it currently resides as of 11:10 BST (time of writing).
Markets have been echoing the early fellowship for much of this week as they struggled to establish a clear and comprehensive narrative.
The July Brent future flat price has been well-supported this afternoon, initially rising from $82.60/bbl handles at 12:00 BST to $83.75/bbl by 14:35 BST.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The July Brent futures flat price has just ticked down this morning from a high of $83.25/bbl at 08:05 BST to $82.40/bbl handles at 10:55 BST, where it still currently resides as of 11:10 BST.
The July Brent futures flat price has had a rollercoaster of an afternoon, initially falling to $81.75/bbl as 12:50 BST, before shooting up rapidly to $82.40/bbl by 13:30 BST.
The July Brent futures flat price had a rangebound night and early morning, bouncing between $82.65/bbl and $83.00/bbl from 05:00 BST to 10:30 BST. Since then however, it has seen a fairly sharp downturn, falling around $0.50/bbl in 45 minutes to its current level of $82.40/bbl as of 11:25 BST.
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‘Strong Brent expiry to give bulls false hope’ or so the meme goes. Immediately following expiry, the North Sea market saw a dramatic capitulation as the physical turned offered.
The July Brent futures flat price has been struggling to garner support this afternoon, sliding down from its daily high of $83.55/bbl at 11:25 BST to its first low of $82.25/bbl at 14:20 BST.
EBOB cracks experienced a fairly weak fortnight, dropping marginally from $22.40/bbl on Apr 30 to $21.50/bbl come May 06, before the decline accelerated, leaving the contract lurking just above $19/bbl.
