What a week it is for European elections as the UK goes to the polls today, whilst France has the second round of its legislative election on Sunday. Ironically, the UK’s election will likely only have a Conservative effect on markets due to the scale and appearing inevitability of Labour’s landslide, predicted to be the greatest seen since 1832(!!!).
The September Brent futures flat price rose over the afternoon to its highest level since April. It rallied from around $86.75/bbl at 12:45 BST to $87.55/bbl at 17:25 (time of writing). Saudi Aramco has reduced the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil for Asia to $1.80/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average benchmark, down by $0.60/bbl for August.
Long Aug/Sep 380: Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380. We have seen continuous rally of Aug/Sep 380 spread since 1st of July. We believe there is still bullish momentum pushing the spreads up higher. For brokerage services across
The September Brent Futures contract experienced a mixed morning. Around 07:30 BST, it traded at $86.88/bbl before dipping to $86.50/bbl by 09:00 BST.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The LST/FEI arb rallied into the fortnight on the back of bullish EIA stats but soon retraced from -$195/mt on 28 June to -$210/mt on 02 July.
The September Brent futures flat price saw quite volatile price action this afternoon, dropping below $86.00/bbl at 15:50 BST before it recovered to $86.40/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures flat price has steadily come off this morning since a brief rise to $86.80/bbl at 08:00 BST.
Long Aug 380 EW: Barge cracks are under pressure due to continued deferred barge crack selling. We think aug 380 EW will be supported on the back of this. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our weekly
We continue to see strength across the naphtha complex, although we appear to now be approaching the dangerous realm of potential buy-side saturation with rising selling in naphtha cracks in Europe, alongside selling in the E/W.
It seems like the flipping of the calendar month has brought with it a debilitation of Dubai’s strength. The prompt contract has returned to what would be arguably ‘normal’ positives, considering the makeup of the barrel.
The September Brent futures flat price has weakened this afternoon, falling from a high of $87.45/bbl at 14:05 BST to a low of $86.60/bbl at 16:00 BST.
The Dated market entered July on a strong note, with the Bal-July DFL shooting up above $1/bbl. Brent spreads also continue to be elevated, with the Sep/Oct futures spread briefly shooting above $0.90/bbl on 01 July before retracing lower to $0.85/bbl.
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The September Brent futures contract saw a strong morning, trading from around $86.80/bbl at 8:00 BST down to a low of $86.60/bbl at 08:40 BST before rising steadily over the remainder of the morning to reach $87.24/bbl at the time of writing (11:00 BST)…
