Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
August Brent futures flat price initially saw choppy price action taking the contract in and out of the $83/bbl handle until 15:00 BST. Following this, we saw the Aug contract register a steadier rise to $83.77/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing).
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Technical indicators showed a resurgence of strength from crude and into the products, as all 3 futures rallied in the week, lifting them all to the neutral territory for RSI and Bollinger band.
For the week to June 11, money managers significantly reduced their short positions whilst keeping their long positions fairly stable across the Brent and WTI futures benchmarks as traders reacted bullishly following the cratering prices of the previous week.
Long Jul Barge 0.5% Crack We have seen a rise in the Jul crack this morning. Although there has been good supply of LSFO recently, the market position has been getting longer according to Onyx CoT.
TARGET PRICE: $82-84/bbl Although we expect Brent futures to remain supported above the $80/bbl region, we hold a neutral outlook this week, with the front-month August contract to finish the week between $82/bbl and $84/bbl. This is predicated on three
The Aug Brent Futures flat price has begun to come off after a strong afternoon. The contract rose from $82.85/bbl at 12:00 BST to a high of $83.40/bbl, which it hit at 13:50 BST.
Overall, European HSFO has been trading sideways in the past fortnight. The July 3.5% barge crack has had a fairly rangebound week, trading between -$8/mt and -$7/mt.
Short Jul 0.5 EW Nigeria’s newly built Dangote refinery are activating their production of low Sulphur fuel oil which get exported to Singapore. This could weakened the east by increasing an already oversupplied market. This is also supported by the
The Aug Brent Futures flat price has had a rangebound morning period, trading between $82.25/bbl and $82.45/bbl since 04:00 BST, except for a brief fall to $82.20/bbl at 05:30 BST. Price action has settled around $82.35/bbl, where it sits as of 06:00 BST (time of writing).
The Aug Brent futures flat price saw a back-and-forth afternoon following the relatively uneventful morning. We saw a strong start with a rally at 13:00 BST spanning two hours in which the price rallied from where it started the afternoon at $81.90/bbl up to an intraday high of $83.00/bbl. However, this was short-lived, as the price then took a tumble from this high to a low of $82.15/bbl.
Unlike England’s chances of winning Euro 2024 following an abysmal 1-0 friendly defeat to Iceland, Brent Futures have surged this week, with the prompt contract rising significantly from $77/bbl to almost $83/bbl.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The Aug Brent Future flat price has softened this morning following an initial period of strength. The price ticked up from $82.20/bbl handles to reach the morning’s high of $82.55/bbl at 09:15 BST, before weakening to below $82/bbl by 10:30 BST. It sits in $81.90/bbl handles as of 11:10 BST (time of writing).
Short Jul 0.5% Sing Crack According to market and ship tracking data, Singapore, Asia’s main oil hub, is set to receive this week the first cargo of low-sulfur straight-run fuel (LSSR) oil exported from Nigeria’s newly built Dangote refinery. There
The Aug Brent futures flat price saw a whirlwind of an afternoon. Initially, we saw a steady move upward in price action from $82.70/bbl at midday to an intraday high of $83.30 at 15:00 BST. Following this upwards price movement, we saw a dramatic tumble in price action with a notable -54c drop in a minute at 15:30 BST down to $82.67/bbl
The Aug Brent Futures flat price has continued its rally this morning, initially rising from $82.30/bbl at 06:00 BST to $82.95/bbl by 10:30 BST. Subsequently, the price has slightly fallen, but still sits in mid-$82.70/bbl handles as of 11:15 BST (time of writing).
Long Jul NWE Naphtha Crack Naphtha cracks have held firm despite weaker gasoline and stronger flat price, so we think there is still an overhang of gas/nap length keeping naphtha supported, so we’d suggest following the recent trend higher For
The Aug Brent Futures flat price has seen a stronger afternoon following the muted activity this morning. Price action initially traded in a range between $81.40/bbl and $81.70/bbl from 12:00 BST to 15:00 BST.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
