The HSFO complex saw a reasonable amount of strength this week, which was disproportionately focused in Asia, causing the 380 E/W to rally aggressively, with the Aug contract rising from $13/mt to $21/mt.
Long Aug TA Arb @ 9.90c/gal After the recent sell off in the front TA Arb we have started to see some support at these levels and expect buyside interest to enter the market.
TARGET: $86.00/bbl – $88.00/bbl PRICE: $86.10/bbl Party in the USA? Brent appears confident to break a four-time streak of ending the week stronger than where it began, amid a fall from last week’s rally to a four-month high. Despite this,
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.
As the country is gripped with the patriotism that can only come with international football success and anti-Spanish rhetoric that I haven’t heard since Oliver Cromwell, Brent has taken a bit of a dive
The September Brent futures contract fell to $84.75/bbl at 14:40 BST, following which it climbed to $85.50/bbl at 16:10 BST and ultimately softened to $85.20/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
SHORT SEP 3.5 BRG CRK Temperatures in Europe have been well above seasonal norms and there’s little sign of that changing anytime soon. Looking further into the future, Sweden’s largest refiner says climate change is making fuel production harder. Temperatures
The Sep Brent futures contract initially weakened into the afternoon, falling to $84.30/bbl at 14:30 BST before rallying to $85.50/bbl by 17:05 BST….
The September Brent futures flat price has seen an uptick following a gradual softening earlier in the morning.
LONG AUG VISCO Visco have been weakened lately by poor physical demand and trade house selling. It has seen some recovery this week with better demand for 180, as cooling demand has increased due to hot weather in the Middle
Sentiment in Dated Brent remained hopeful in the week leading up to the August Brent futures expiry and sustained this strength for a few days following expiry, after which things cratered very quickly.
There seems to be a lack of direction in the wider gasoline complex as traders fail to really see genuine and strong demand, with recent economic data being predominantly sad.
The September Brent futures contract has experienced a downturn this afternoon following an initial period of sideways price action and a brief rally.
