The Sep’24 Brent futures flat price has been under downward pressure this morning, falling from $81.40/bbl at 09:25 BST to $80.28/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing).
Long Aug 3.5 barge crack Structure-wise we have seen Barge cracks create a higher low and starting to push up, its recovering from the oversold territory on the RSI indicating for a potential bullish push, alongside market participants are positioned
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The September Brent futures contract weakened to $81/bbl at 16:05 BST, where it found support and sharply rallied to $82.20/bbl at 16:35 BST. The benchmark crude futures contract has since simmered off to $81.90/bbl as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
Long TA Arb at 12c/gal APIs were quite bullish, showing a 2.8M draw. If today’s EIA statistics are close to these figures, we should expect a bullish movement on RBOB. Additionally, the EBOB front has been sticky due to the
The September Brent futures flat price has been on an upward trajectory this morning, where despite some choppiness it has seen a 50c uptick from $81.15/bbl at 06:50 BST to $81.70/bbl, where it sits as of 11:00 BST (time of writing).
What goes up, must come down, and it really feels like we have reached an inflection point in Dated Brent, or inflexion point as the Americans spell it. As usual, it is all eyes on America, and what the changing political tides will mean for the oil market, geopolitics, and the financial markets at large. But that is a discussion reserved for Q4. The Dated Brent market is all about the here and now, and that is what we will focus on.
The September Brent futures flat price has capitulated this afternoon, falling from $82.30/bbl at 12:10 BST down to a low of $80.50/bbl at 16:55 BST, before retracing up marginally to $80.75/bbl, where it sits as of 17:05 BST (time of writing).
The gasoline market continues to float without direction, riddled with illiquidity as players lament and let go of all hope for the summer. EBOB cracks have been particularly hit this fortnight due to Europe losing the New York Harbor as a demand outlet as demand for gasoline becomes increasingly muted.
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The September Brent Futures contract has seen a relatively weak morning, trading down from highs around $82.76/bbl at 09:30 BST to a daily low of $82.24/bbl, where it currently sits at the time of writing (11:20 BST).
Long Aug/Sep 3.5 Barges Since the start of July, Barge spreads have come off, it seems that it has found support at $5/mt levels as it has struggled to break past, we have also seen recent strength in the Barge
The September Brent futures flat price has had an afternoon of two distinct halves, initially falling from $82.40/bbl at 12:30 BST to $81.65/bbl by $81.65/bbl, before then recovering these losses to sit at $82.30/bbl as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
Rebalancing in High Volatility We expect Brent prices to remain in the low $80/bbls this week – despite a less saturated buy-side market – because of a slew of refreshed bearish bets from funds and negative net positioning by CTAs.
Technical indicators showed the major futures contracts selling off at the end of last week, highlighting oversold conditions for Brent, ICE LS gasoil and RBOB – based on both the RSI and Bollinger bands for the latter two.
