Brent Forecast: 8th July 2024
Onyx Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi reports this week’s Brent forecast.
Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
Onyx Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi reports this week’s Brent forecast.
The September Brent futures contract has been on a downward trajectory this morning, inching lower from above $86/bbl at 08:00 BST to $85.85/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing). The persistent decline in prices following a peak of nearly $88/bbl last Friday highlights possible profit-taking by long-positioned players. In addition, the ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City reportedly shut operations as Hurricane Beryl intensified to Category 1 level alongside expectations of the hurricane strengthening further to Category 2. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry stated that the country will compensate for the overproduction of oil in 1H’24 by September 2025, with output exceeding its OPEC+ quota. Following recent disasters at energy storage facilities, Chinese authorities are planning to order large-scale fire safety investigations of these plants. In the eurozone, investor morale broke an eight-month streak of improvements, with Sentix’s index for the region falling to -7.3 points for July (prev: 0.3). Finally, at the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Sep/March futures spreads stood at $0.80/bbl and $3.68/bbl, respectively.
Long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges : Our trade idea is to long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges. Since 1st of July we have seen bullish movements with 3.5 Barge spreads, trading from $8/mt up to now currently trading at $11/mt. We believe spreads will
The September Brent futures flat price has had an unsettled afternoon, initially rising from $87.20/bbl to $87.65/bbl and then back between 12:00 BST and 15:20 BST.
Russia attacked and damaged a gas facility in the Poltava region operated by UkrGazVydobuvannya (UGV), Ukraine’s state-owned producer, on 03 July.
The crude oil futures market rallied to 4-month highs this week and is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly increase.
Long Aug 3.5 Barge crack: Our trade idea is to long Aug 3.5 Barge crack – recently we have seen weakness with the barge crack, trading down from -$7.60/bbl to -$8.90/bbl. However there has been a slight retracement back up
The September Brent futures flat price witnessed an impressive rally early this morning. The contract moved sharply up from $87.15/bbl minutes before 08:00 BST to $87.60/MMBtu at 08:40 BST. However, the benchmark crude futures contract subsequently weakened and stands at $87.30/bbl as of 11:25 BST (time of writing)
What a week it is for European elections as the UK goes to the polls today, whilst France has the second round of its legislative election on Sunday. Ironically, the UK’s election will likely only have a Conservative effect on markets due to the scale and appearing inevitability of Labour’s landslide, predicted to be the greatest seen since 1832(!!!).
The September Brent futures flat price rose over the afternoon to its highest level since April. It rallied from around $86.75/bbl at 12:45 BST to $87.55/bbl at 17:25 (time of writing). Saudi Aramco has reduced the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil for Asia to $1.80/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average benchmark, down by $0.60/bbl for August.
Long Aug/Sep 380: Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380. We have seen continuous rally of Aug/Sep 380 spread since 1st of July. We believe there is still bullish momentum pushing the spreads up higher. For brokerage services across
The September Brent Futures contract experienced a mixed morning. Around 07:30 BST, it traded at $86.88/bbl before dipping to $86.50/bbl by 09:00 BST.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The LST/FEI arb rallied into the fortnight on the back of bullish EIA stats but soon retraced from -$195/mt on 28 June to -$210/mt on 02 July.
The September Brent futures flat price saw quite volatile price action this afternoon, dropping below $86.00/bbl at 15:50 BST before it recovered to $86.40/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures flat price has steadily come off this morning since a brief rise to $86.80/bbl at 08:00 BST.
Long Aug 380 EW: Barge cracks are under pressure due to continued deferred barge crack selling. We think aug 380 EW will be supported on the back of this. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our weekly
We continue to see strength across the naphtha complex, although we appear to now be approaching the dangerous realm of potential buy-side saturation with rising selling in naphtha cracks in Europe, alongside selling in the E/W.
It seems like the flipping of the calendar month has brought with it a debilitation of Dubai’s strength. The prompt contract has returned to what would be arguably ‘normal’ positives, considering the makeup of the barrel.
The September Brent futures flat price has weakened this afternoon, falling from a high of $87.45/bbl at 14:05 BST to a low of $86.60/bbl at 16:00 BST.