Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
TARGET: $86.00/bbl – $88.00/bbl PRICE: $86.10/bbl Party in the USA? Brent appears confident to break a four-time streak of ending the week stronger than where it began, amid a fall from last week’s rally to a four-month high. Despite this,
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.
As the country is gripped with the patriotism that can only come with international football success and anti-Spanish rhetoric that I haven’t heard since Oliver Cromwell, Brent has taken a bit of a dive
The September Brent futures contract fell to $84.75/bbl at 14:40 BST, following which it climbed to $85.50/bbl at 16:10 BST and ultimately softened to $85.20/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
SHORT SEP 3.5 BRG CRK Temperatures in Europe have been well above seasonal norms and there’s little sign of that changing anytime soon. Looking further into the future, Sweden’s largest refiner says climate change is making fuel production harder. Temperatures
The Sep Brent futures contract initially weakened into the afternoon, falling to $84.30/bbl at 14:30 BST before rallying to $85.50/bbl by 17:05 BST….
The September Brent futures flat price has seen an uptick following a gradual softening earlier in the morning.
LONG AUG VISCO Visco have been weakened lately by poor physical demand and trade house selling. It has seen some recovery this week with better demand for 180, as cooling demand has increased due to hot weather in the Middle
Sentiment in Dated Brent remained hopeful in the week leading up to the August Brent futures expiry and sustained this strength for a few days following expiry, after which things cratered very quickly.
There seems to be a lack of direction in the wider gasoline complex as traders fail to really see genuine and strong demand, with recent economic data being predominantly sad.
The September Brent futures contract has experienced a downturn this afternoon following an initial period of sideways price action and a brief rally.
This week Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi brings you trades in Asian High Sulfur Fuel Oil and Northwestern European propane. Firstly, we take a short-positioned view of Singapore 380 fuel oil spreads. Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of heavy distillates have increased 1.6%
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed morning, at first rallying up to $85.84/bbl at 07:00 BST before experiencing a sell-off down to $85.14/bbl at 10:45 BST and subsequently rebounding to $85.36/bbl at the time of writing (11:10 BST). In headlines today, Saudi crude exports to China are expected to rebound in August to around 46mb, driven by allocations to Unipec and Rongsheng Petrochina, after Saudi Arabia cut OSPs for August-loading barrels. This follows a drop in exports to 36mb in July, the lowest since March 2020, according to Kpler. In other news, Eni announced a significant natural gas discovery in the Gulf of Mexico, estimated at 300 to 400mb of oil equivalent. The discovery is in the Sureste Basin, where Eni has over 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent in resources and comes amongst plans to develop the area into a hub, leveraging several nearby discoveries. Also in the region, Mexico’s state energy major, Pemex, has been expanding gas-powered generation and increasing domestic gas resource development to reduce dependence on U.S. imports. Mexico recently updated its proven oil and gas reserves from last year to 8.383 billion barrels of oil equivalent from 5.978 billion barrels, with proven natural gas reserves rising to 12.297 trillion cubic feet from 11.029 trillion cubic feet. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.76/bbl and $3.47/bbl, respectively.
CFTC COT Report for the week ending 02 July – UPDATED WITH NYMEX DATA
Long Aug/Sep 380 spread : Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380 spread. Hot weather in the Middle East and Persian Gulf were expected to maintain power generator. End-consumers look to cool their houses and buildings. We believe demand for
The September Brent futures flat price witnessed a choppy Monday afternoon, first rising to $86.25/bbl before falling to $85.75/bbl, where it remains as of 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the headlines, ExxonMobil said that lower natural gas prices and refining margins are expected to hit the oil major’s Q2 earnings. Devon Energy announced on Monday that it had entered a deal to acquire Grayson Mill Energy’s Williston basin business in a cash-and-stock deal worth $5 billion, as it aims to cash in on high stock valuations to grow acreage. US SPR crude inventories rose by 0.5mb w-o-w to 373.1mb last week. According to Argus, the freight cost between Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk to China has fallen to the lowest level since October. At the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Sep/Mar Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $3.61/bbl, respectively.
Technical indicators showed the major futures contracts teetering on overbought in the Bollinger bands as the strength emanated from crude and was held well in the products.
