Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
Short Aug 380 E/W -Since last week the E/W has been climbing on the back of the strengthen Asian Fuel Oil. The physical arb is open and we expect Euro prices to start to rise, so this trade idea is
The October Brent futures flat price has significantly weakened this afternoon following an initial period of strength.
We saw softer prices for the October Brent futures, ICE gasoil futures and US RBOB gasoline futures this week…
It has been an unusual year for the oil market. Gasoline, usually a blessing for sentiment in the summer, has been lacklustre throughout June and into July. On the other hand, wintertime performers like propane and butane have seen incredible
It was a risk-off week in the global crude benchmarks as money managers reduced long positions and added short positions. Preceded by five consecutive weeks of increases, long positions declined by 46.9mb (-8%). Meanwhile, short positions increased by 12mb (+8%). As a result, net positioning fell by 59.0mb (-13.8%), the largest rate in two months, while the long:short ratio fell from 4.03:1.00 to 3.41:1.00. The rate of sales was fuelled by the reversal of sentiment in WTI futures following the expiry of the Aug’24 contract. Global crude oil flat prices came off last week, with Brent crucially finding support at the $80/bbl level.
The October Brent futures flat price contract climbed to $80.85/bbl around 07:35 BST but simmered off $80.05/bbl at 10:40 BST. The benchmark crude futures contract found support at this level and currently sits at $80.20/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing).
Long Aug/Sep 0.5% Sing We saw some support on Friday which pushed the spread up to $8.00. This morning Aug/Sep dropped to $7.50, however we believe that the price will resume its upward trend.
The October Brent futures flat price has had an extremely mixed afternoon, initially falling from $81.15/bbl at 12:00 BST to the afternoon’s low of $79.45/bbl at 15:35 BST, before it then saw a retracement up to $80.20/bbl, where it sits as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
In HSFO over the past fortnight, we saw price action appear fairly unsettled alongside enduring relative Asian strength.
The October Brent futures contract has been consistently declining all morning, falling from $81.60/bbl at 07:50 BST to $81.05/bbl as of 11:20 BST (time of writing)….
“OPEC+ will need to maintain its current voluntary restraint to balance out growth… This will help prevent global balances from weakening at year-end and preserve a price floor at around $80 a barrel.” – Harry Tchilinguirian Follow Harry on X
The soon-to-be-prompt October Brent futures contract dipped to $79.55/bbl at 14:00 BST, where it found support and climbed to $81.10/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing)
It’s the dawn of a new era in oil and everywhere else. US President Joe Biden stepped down to pave the way for a Trump vs Harris election riddled with all things Brat and Hannibal Lecter. In oil, the September Brent futures contract, unburdened from what had been the rangebound trading of last week, saw the beginning of a violent throwing-up.
The Sep’24 Brent futures flat price has been under downward pressure this morning, falling from $81.40/bbl at 09:25 BST to $80.28/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing).
Long Aug 3.5 barge crack Structure-wise we have seen Barge cracks create a higher low and starting to push up, its recovering from the oversold territory on the RSI indicating for a potential bullish push, alongside market participants are positioned
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The September Brent futures contract weakened to $81/bbl at 16:05 BST, where it found support and sharply rallied to $82.20/bbl at 16:35 BST. The benchmark crude futures contract has since simmered off to $81.90/bbl as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
Long TA Arb at 12c/gal APIs were quite bullish, showing a 2.8M draw. If today’s EIA statistics are close to these figures, we should expect a bullish movement on RBOB. Additionally, the EBOB front has been sticky due to the
The September Brent futures flat price has been on an upward trajectory this morning, where despite some choppiness it has seen a 50c uptick from $81.15/bbl at 06:50 BST to $81.70/bbl, where it sits as of 11:00 BST (time of writing).
What goes up, must come down, and it really feels like we have reached an inflection point in Dated Brent, or inflexion point as the Americans spell it. As usual, it is all eyes on America, and what the changing political tides will mean for the oil market, geopolitics, and the financial markets at large. But that is a discussion reserved for Q4. The Dated Brent market is all about the here and now, and that is what we will focus on.
