Fuel Oil Report – A Ship Show
August 9, 2024
In HSFO over the past fortnight, we saw price action appear fairly unsettled alongside enduring relative Asian strength.
Reports
Dated Brent Update Report
Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
European Window: Brent inches past $79/bbl
August 8, 2024
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract hit $77.75/bbl at 10:45 BST, following which prices firmed up to $79.05/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing).
Trader Meeting Notes: “Carry on” – Kazuo Ueda, probably
August 8, 2024
The Paris Olympics are in full swing, with Celine Dion’s opening ceremony rendition of ‘L’Hymne à l’amour’ proving to be an even greater performance than that of European propane this week…
CFTC Predictor: Exit, Pursued by a Bear
August 8, 2024
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
Early Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Holds Above $78.50/bbl
August 8, 2024
The October Brent futures flat price saw a supported performance on Wednesday morning, climbing by over $1 since 08:30 BST from $76.40/bbl to $77.50/bbl by 11:30 BST (time of writing). Price action is testing the $77.50/bbl resistance level, where the market failed to break on two separate occasions on the 2nd and 6th of August. According to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), India’s oil demand rose by 7.4% y/y to 19.652 million tonnes in July. In contrast…
European Window: Brent Rallies over $78.50/bbl
August 7, 2024
The October Brent futures flat price saw better support on Tuesday afternoon, finding a springboard of $75.60/bbl before gapping up to $77/bbl before coming off to $76.62/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). The US Department of Energy announced two solicitations to purchase oil for the SPR, 1.5mb for delivery into the Bayou Choctaw site and 2.0mb for the Bryan Mound site, both in January 2025. Libya’s NOC said on Tuesday that it is gradually reducing production from the Sharara field, citing force majeure due to protests in the area.
Daily Trade Ideas: 07/08/2024
August 7, 2024
Long sep dfl After weakening down to lows of around -13c yesterday, we think there is opportunity to look to fade the weakness and take a small long position today on the sep dfl Short Sep 380 crack After seeing
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Rallies to $77.50/bbl
August 7, 2024
The October Brent futures flat price saw a supported performance on Wednesday morning, climbing by over $1 since 08:30 BST from $76.40/bbl to $77.50/bbl by 11:30 BST (time of writing). Price action is testing the $77.50/bbl resistance level, where the market failed to break on two separate occasions on the 2nd and 6th of August. According to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), India’s oil demand rose by 7.4% y/y to 19.652 million tonnes in July. In contrast…
Dated Brent Report – Totsa, It’s Hammer Time
August 6, 2024
All hell broke loose this week as the Bears came in with a bang. The Dated Brent market was not immune to the chaos that ran amok global financial markets at large. The poor US jobs reading was the tinderbox that catalysed the worldwide sell-off, and a bloodbath ensued. For our readers outside of Japan, it is one less bowl of ramen or can of Strong Zero on your upcoming trip to the land of the rising sun as investors unwound their carry trades, prompting a mass exodus from the Nikkei.
Gasoline Report: Arb-n’t you glad you didn’t short?
August 6, 2024
The gasoline market continues to float without direction, riddled with illiquidity as players lament and let go of all hope for the summer. EBOB cracks have been particularly hit this fortnight due to Europe losing the New York Harbor as a demand outlet as demand for gasoline becomes increasingly muted.
European Window: Brent Jumps to $77/bbl
August 6, 2024
The October Brent futures flat price saw better support on Tuesday afternoon, finding a springboard of $75.60/bbl before gapping up to $77/bbl before coming off to $76.62/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing). The US Department of Energy announced two solicitations to purchase oil for the SPR, 1.5mb for delivery into the Bayou Choctaw site and 2.0mb for the Bryan Mound site, both in January 2025. Libya’s NOC said on Tuesday that it is gradually reducing production from the Sharara field, citing force majeure due to protests in the area.
Onyx Alpha: Would Jul-like to hear how our trades did?
August 6, 2024
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Weakens to $76.20/bbl
August 6, 2024
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract witnessed a morning of two halves. We initially saw the benchmark crude futures contract firm up to $80.40/bbl at 09:00 BST but saw these gains fade amid a sell-off to $79.75/bbl as of 11:20 BST (time of writing).
Oil Monthly Report: Truth Will Out in Prices
August 5, 2024
The oil market was no wiser in July when it came to the fundamental outlook and particularly global oil demand growth this year.
European Window: Brent Rises to $76.65/bbl
August 5, 2024
The October Brent futures flat price has been decimated this afternoon, falling from $79.70/bbl at 12:10 BST to a low of $76.75/bbl at 15:40 BST, before it retraced marginally up to $76.90/bbl by 17:30 BST (time of writing).
CFTC Weekly: The Futures Not So Bright…?
August 5, 2024
It was a risk-off week in the global crude benchmarks as money managers reduced long positions and added short positions. Preceded by five consecutive weeks of increases, long positions declined by 46.9mb (-8%). Meanwhile, short positions increased by 12mb (+8%). As a result, net positioning fell by 59.0mb (-13.8%), the largest rate in two months, while the long:short ratio fell from 4.03:1.00 to 3.41:1.00. The rate of sales was fuelled by the reversal of sentiment in WTI futures following the expiry of the Aug’24 contract. Global crude oil flat prices came off last week, with Brent crucially finding support at the $80/bbl level.
Brent Forecast: 5th August 2024
August 5, 2024
Swing Low, Sweet Crude Brent crude futures suffered a major sell-off amidst mounting recession fears in the US, as the front-month October contract fell to the $75/bbl level on 5 August (at time of writing). The catalyst was Friday’s nonfarm
Futures Report: Sell-ecting Stocks
August 5, 2024
Prices have fallen in the Oct’24 Brent futures, ICE LS gasoil futures and RBOB gasoline futures contracts in the week ending 05 Aug. While open interest has been on an uptick in gasoil and RBOB, Brent saw more de-risking into August.
Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent sells off below $76/bbl
August 5, 2024
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract softened this morning, falling from above $77/bbl around 05:30 BST to $76.65/bbl around 08:35 BST.
Daily Trade Idea: 05/08/2024
August 5, 2024
Long Sep/Oct 3.5% Barge On Friday we saw Sep/Oct hit the lowest price it has been since January this year. Looking at the Onyx CoT data the RSI has crept into the oversold territory at 33.