Due to International Energy week events, the Dated Brent Update report will not be published in the week commencing 24 February 2025.
The next report will be published on 4 March 2025.
The North Sea continues to be a hub for outrageously bullish moves from trade houses (they’ve got to pay that fine somehow). For whom (or maybe why) the Vi-tolls is the question, maybe the Dated Brent is seeing fewer themes of honour or sacrifice but ‘no man is an island’…
The Oct’24 Brent futures contract fell below the $80/bbl mark at 05:40 BST, sitting at $79.80/bbl at 06:50 BST. However, the futures contract found support at this level and firmed up to $80.20/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). The US CPI increased by 0.2% in July to 2.9% y/y (June: +3% y/y), its first sub-3% reading since March 2021. The core CPI climbed 0.2% in July (June: 0.2%). In China, new home prices declined 4.9% y/y, their sharpest drop since June 2015 (June: 4.5% y/y). In other news, Chevron Corp. will reportedly pay $550 million over 10 years to the city council in Richmond, California, as a settlement to drop a proposed new tax on Chevron’s Richmond refinery. As per a National Statistics Office (SSB) survey, Norwegian oil and gas investments are expected to hit a record 257 billion Norwegian crowns ($23.99 billion) in 2024 and remain elevated in 2025 on the back of ongoing field developments and rising inflation. Finally, at the time of writing, the Oct/Nov’24 and Oct/Apr’25 Brent futures spreads stood at $0.80/bbl and $2.70/bbl, respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
Short Oct/Nov 0.5 sing We have been seeing some selling in the front of the sing LSFO. The low appetite from China is reflected in July’s crude throughput, which has fallen to a 21-month low. The RSI indicate overbought with
The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price fell this afternoon, from $81.14/bbl at 14.15 BST to $80.20/bbl at 17.30 BST (time of writing), as there were quite volatile movements this afternoon, especially post-EIA stats. The EIA inventory report revealed US crude stocks increased by 1.357mb, compared to the forecast 2mb draw. Stocks at Cushing OK, however, saw a draw of 1.665mb. Both gasoline and distillates saw a larger draw than forecast. US gasoline inventories saw a draw of 2.894mb compared to the forecast of 1.42mb, and distillate stocks fell by 1.673mb compared to the 250kb build forecast as refinery utilisation increased unexpectedly by 1%. Prime Minister Netanyahu has approved an Israeli delegation to Doha, Qatar, for talks on a hostage deal and Gaza ceasefire, along with the negotiation mandate. Iraq has signed preliminary deals for 13 oil and gas exploration blocks, potentially boosting output by 750,000 barrels of crude and 850 million cubic feet of gas. This sixth licensing round focuses on increasing natural gas production to reduce reliance on Iranian imports for power generation. Finally, the front (Oct/Nov) and 6-month (Oct/Apr) Brent futures spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $2.66/bbl respectively.
We saw US Mont Belvieu (LST) propane spreads first plummet at the start of the month and then subsequently rally.
The October Brent futures flat price saw a choppy but ultimately bearish Wednesday morning, rallying to highs of $81.41/bbl by 10:07 BST which was followed by a rapid descent below $81/bbl, trading at $80.76/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). The 5.2mb crude draw, as reported by the API, has supported prices, but traders are awaiting confirmation from EIA stats. Markets are expecting a 0.2% m-o-m US core CPI reading today, which would support a Fed rate cut in September.
Long Oct/Nov 380 Oil stocks in Fujairah have dropped to a 10-month low. Plus demand falling after peak summer power generation for air conditioning. Oct/Nov price has fallen from $8.75 a few days ago and this trade suggestion is to
The Dated Brent market saw an impressive rally and was buoyed to even further heights after a very brief foray into contango territory. To borrow from the IEA, the market saw “Olympic levels of volatility” in the past month. Demonstrating this, the physical differential fell from $1.14/bbl on 2 August to -$0.19/bbl on 6 August before rising to $1.70/bbl on 12 August, reaching its highest level since February.
The October Brent futures flat price trended lower on Tuesday afternoon, falling by over $1 after hitting resistance at the $82/bbl level, reaching lows of $80.62/bbl at 17:07 BST, and trading at $80.81/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). The fall in prices can be attributed to a fading geopolitical risk premia on the decreasing likelihood of an imminent attack by Iran against Israel, while the IEA report released earlier projected a grim forecast on global oil demand growth relative to OPEC projections.
We continue to see strength across the naphtha complex, although we appear to now be approaching the dangerous realm of potential buy-side saturation with rising selling in naphtha cracks in Europe, alongside selling in the E/W.
The strength emerged from a pitiful Dubai complex riddled with selling flow on the back of bearish macroeconomic data and the sell-off within wider risk assets
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price started the day on a bullish front and rallied past the $80/bbl handle. The benchmark crude futures contract was observed sitting just below $80.40/bbl as of 11:35 BST (time of writing).
Short Sep 0.5% Sing Crack -The Asian LSFO has seen strength in the last few days with above average bunkering activity. However we have observed that Al-Zour refinery exports are expecting to increase with summer power generation demand typically cooling
The October Brent futures flat price accelerated its rally on Monday afternoon, cruising past $81/bbl and trading at $81.18/bbl at 17:00 BST (time of writing). Price action has extended last week’s gains, with US recession fears easing and Middle Eastern geopolitical risk, and potentially supported by short covering flows. The market awaits response, while on Monday Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region following Ukraine’s incursion into sovereign Russian territory. In OPEC’s August MOMR…
Last week, the Oct’24 Brent futures witnessed a significant sell-off, following which sentiment recovered. The benchmark crude futures contract went from $76.30/bbl on 06 Aug to $80.40/bbl on 12 Aug (at the time of writing).
It was a bearish week for global crude benchmarks (Brent + WTI), which also suffered from the fallout from the sell-off in global risk assets following a weak US employment data report and the unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade. Notably, the significant increase in short positions across the key futures benchmarks imply that the recent sell-off was exacerbated by fresh CTA selling, in addition to the liquidation of length by discretionary and risk-parity funds.
The Oct’24 Brent futures flat price started the day on a bullish front and rallied past the $80/bbl handle. The benchmark crude futures contract was observed sitting just below $80.40/bbl as of 11:35 BST (time of writing).
The Oct’24 Brent futures witnessed a largely rangebound afternoon, with the flat price first falling from $79.50/bbl at 13:10 BST to $78.85/bbl around 15:10 BST, only to firm up to $79.70/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing).
