Naphtha & Gasoline reports
Please note that these reports will now be published every Thursday.
In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), the 3.5% barge complex weakened into the new year. The Feb/Mar’25 3.5% barge spread dropped from $4/mt on 27 Dec to a contango of -$1/mt on 14 Jan. While this contango was short-lived, the
Sell Baby Sell? On Monday, we forecast the front-month Brent futures contract to hover between $74 and $77/bbl by the end of this week. As of Friday, at 10:05 GMT, the M1 futures contract is trading at $75.40/bbl. In line
Apr’25 Brent futures strengthened from around $75.10/bbl at 0630 GMT this morning up to $75.55/bbl at 0835 GMT, before tapering off to $75.25/bbl at 1055 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a Russian drone has caused significant damage
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has made a recovery after weakness this morning, trading from around $74.10/bbl at 1300 GMT up to $75.00/bbl at 1730 GMT. In the news today, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not accept any bilateral
This week reminded the market that we do not know what will happen next. The whipsaw of news seemed to pull the rug from under you as soon as you believed it. So what can we say really happened this
Apr’25 Brent futures initially saw small strength this morning, increasing from $74.50/bbl on 0600 GMT up to a touch under $74.90/bbl at 0910 GMT, but has since fallen to $74.10/bbl at 1025 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, declining from $76.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $75.35/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment this afternoon, with EIA stats released today at 1530 GMT for
US Mont Belvieu (TET) propane found support in the fortnight ending 11 Feb, climbing from 84.50c/gal on 28 Jan to above 89c/gal on 11 Feb. Expectations of colder weather in the coming two weeks have supported expectations of heating demand
The Apr’25 Brent futures flat price came off on Wednesday morning, falling from $76.90/bbl at 07:15 GMT to the low $76/bbl region, trading at $76.30/bbl at 10:30 GMT (time of writing). Price action retreated as the macro environment weighed on
Apr’25 Brent futures failed to maintain strength above $77.00/bbl this afternoon and softened to $76.46/bbl at 15:22 GMT before recovering to around $76.94/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Russian oil production fell below its OPEC+ quota in January, alleviating
After the M1 Brent/Dubai contract fell to all-time lows in our last report, down to an intraday low of almost -$2.60/bbl on 28 Jan, there almost seemed no limit to bearish sentiment. However, the contract has found some momentary respite,
The naphtha complex rebalanced amid mass stop-outs and heavy selling into the cracks, which saw huge pressure in both regions. Stronger crude pressured the cracks alongside weaker demand estimates in the East and clear refiner selling in MOPJ flat price
The North Sea Dated Brent physical differential continued to be pressured in the week ending 7 February, with Equinor and Gunvor on the sell side. The physical reached a low on 5 February at -$0.22/bbl before rising to $0.06/bbl by
Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in NGL and fuel oil swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft
