Naphtha & Gasoline reports
Please note that these reports will now be published every Thursday.
The week ending 28 Jan was characterised by de-risking in the benchmark Brent and WTI futures, more significantly in the latter. Combined open interest in the crude futures declined by 77.89mb (-1.76%) this week.
The talk of the market has been Trump’s tariff announcement on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This week, we expect price action in Brent crude futures to remain rangebound between $75 and $79/bbl in the Apr’25 contract as the
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract found support at just shy of $76.00/bbl at around 0300 GMT and strengthened through the morning to $76.55/bbl at 10:35 GMT (time of writing). President Trump issued executive orders on 1 Feb, which will take
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract fell to around $75.25/bbl at 1500 GMT before strengthening to $75.95/bbl at 1700 GMT (time of writing). The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually, keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target,
In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), the 3.5% barge complex weakened into the new year. The Feb/Mar’25 3.5% barge spread dropped from $4/mt on 27 Dec to a contango of -$1/mt on 14 Jan. While this contango was short-lived, the
Risk off, worry on On Monday, we forecast March Brent futures to end the week between $75-79.00/bbl. At 1600 GMT, March Brent is within this range at $76.75/bbl as it expires today, and April becomes the prompt at $75.75/bbl. This
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $76.40/bbl at 03:00 GMT but softened into the day, hitting $75.50/bbl at 10:15 GMT. The contract finally saw support at this level and rose to $75.70/bbl at 10:38 GMT (time of writing)
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed from $75.40/bbl at 1400 GMT to see resistance around $76.50/bbl at 1540 GMT and is supported at just shy of $76.00/bbl at 1738 GMT (time of writing). Petrobras boosted reserves to 11.4 billion barrels
Gong Xi Fa Cai! Happy Year of the Snake to everyone in the oil market while they anxiously watch the front-month Brent futures contract tread around the low $77/bbl handle on the eve of expiry. The soon-to-be-prompt Apr ’25 Brent
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s
The tide finally turned on US LPG as the weather cleared on the Eastern and Southern coasts. The Mar’25 Mont Belvieu TET propane, C3 LST, weakened from 91.55c/gal on the evening of 17 Jan to 84.375c/gal by the afternoon of
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $76.40/bbl at 16:00 GMT, softened to $76.05/bbl at 16:20 GMT before climbing again to $76.40/bbl at 16:40 GMT. The crude futures contract again met resistance at this level and declined to $75.65/bbl at
The Apr’25 Brent futures contract climbed to $77.15/bbl at 14:05 GMT but softened subsequently, briefly weakening below $76/bbl at 16:50 GMT.
As the Middle Eastern crude market continues to tighten due to supply tightness fears from the prospect of further sanctions pressure on Russia, the front-month Feb’25 Brent/Dubai swaps contract reached an all-time flow of -$2.50/bbl, while the Feb/Mar box fell
The naphtha complex rebalanced amid mass stop-outs and heavy selling into the cracks, which saw huge pressure in both regions. Stronger crude pressured the cracks alongside weaker demand estimates in the East and clear refiner selling in MOPJ flat price
