Reports

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has made a recovery after weakness this morning, trading from around $74.10/bbl at 1300 GMT up to $75.00/bbl at 1730 GMT. In the news today, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not accept any bilateral agreement reached by Russia and the US without Kyiv’s involvement. The Kremlin responded that Ukraine would “of course” be involved in peace talks but that there would be a separate US-Russian channel for negotiations, as per Reuters. In other news, Hamas stated it is willing to proceed with the Gaza ceasefire deal, agreeing to release the next three Israeli hostages this weekend in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. This came as the 42-day Gaza ceasefire appeared close to failure this week with Israel and Hamas accusing the other of violating the peace deal. Finally, Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders as shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels to the country in case they are detained, according to an Argus report. In January, Syria’s transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mb of crude oil, 80kt of 90 RON gasoline, and 100kt of fuel oil and gasoil, all of which closed earlier this month. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.36/bbl and $2.48/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, declining from $76.35/bbl at 1200 GMT down to $75.35/bbl at 1720 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw bearish sentiment this afternoon, with EIA stats released today at 1530 GMT for the week to 07 Feb showing a larger-than-expected 4.07mb build in US crude oil inventories. In the news today, OPEC has released its February oil market report, forecasting global oil demand in 2025 to grow by 1.4mb/d y/y, largely unchanged from January’s assessment. OPEC projects OECD oil demand to grow by 0.1mb/d y/y and by 1.3mb/d In the non-OECD region, mostly driven by Chinese demand. Total world oil demand is anticipated to average 106.6mb/d in 2026. In other news, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the country complied with its OPEC+ output quota in January and February so far, quoted by Russian news agency Interfax. Meanwhile, Indian refiners are reconfiguring insurers and vessel owners to continue receiving cheaper Russian oil without violating US sanctions on Russian oil exports, anonymous industry executives told Bloomberg. Finally, CNPC and Kazakhstan’s KazTransGas have signed an agreement increasing the contracted gas volume for the 2024-25 supply year by one-third, according to Xinhua news agency. CNPC also finalized a crude oil spot purchase agreement with Tengizchevroil, though specific contract volume figures were not disclosed, as per S&P Global. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $2.47/bbl, respectively.

Apr’25 Brent futures failed to maintain strength above $77.00/bbl this afternoon and softened to $76.46/bbl at 15:22 GMT before recovering to around $76.94/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Russian oil production fell below its OPEC+ quota in January, alleviating fears of oversupply. Output dropped to 8.962 mb/d, coming in at 16 kb/d under the approved level set by the production agreement. Petro-Victory Energy, in a 50/50 partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Petroleo, acquired 13 oil fields spanning 38,301 acres in Brazil’s Potiguar Basin. The deal adds 125mb of oil in place, boosting production capacity and proven reserves by 50%. The US Dollar stays flat for a second day, with the DXY holding above 108.00. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled no rush to adjust rates, while the Greenback remains fairly unfazed by Trump’s 15% steel and aluminium tariff, set for March 12. Chinese retaliatory tariffs targeting US coal and LNG came into play today. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.86/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw marginal strength this afternoon, increasing from $75.60/bbl at 1200 GMT up to $76.05/bbl at 1715 GMT, before tapering to $75.85/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Bullish sentiment has pushed crude oil prices higher to start the week despite US tariff concerns, with traders seeing good buying opportunity after last week’s decline. In the news today, India’s Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said the country plans to launch new oil and gas licensing rounds as early as this week, with a meeting between US President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi scheduled later this week. In other news, Russia’s crude output fell to 8.962mb/d in January, 16kb/d below its target under the OPEC+ supply agreement, according to Energy Ministry figures seen by Bloomberg. Russia has pledged to submit an updated schedule for oil production cuts to compensate for past overproduction, though none has been published. Finally, Moldova’s pro-Russian breakaway Transdniestria region is expected to begin receiving natural gas supplies under a loan provided by Moscow, as per Reuters. This followed widespread power cuts after Russian natural gas shipments to the region were halted on 1 Jan. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.46/bbl and $2.75/bbl, respectively.