Reports

Apr’25 Brent futures has seen weakness overnight, falling from $73.85/bbl around 02:30 GMT down to $73.10/bbl at 10:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have seen bearish sentiment after Trump said that 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will come into effect on 4 March, in addition to raising tariffs on China by 10%. In the news today, Alberta, Canada’s top oil-producing province, is projecting its first budget deficit after four years of surpluses as the prospect of a trade war with the US grows, Bloomberg reported. Alberta is poised be hit hardest by President Trump’s tariffs, as it supplies the bulk of the 4mb/d of crude oil that the US imports from Canada. In other news, China’s imports of Russian Far East crude and Iranian oil are expected to rebound in March as non-sanctioned tankers begin to replace vessels under US embargo, as per Reuters. A three-fold jump in freight rates for tankers to load ESPO crude from Russia’s port of Kozmino to China drew at least 17 non-sanctioned tankers on the route between 11 and 20 February, according to Vortexa. Meanwhile, British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is set to visit China in March to restart talks on energy cooperation and meet Chinese investors, sources told Reuters. Finally, Argentina’s production output is anticipated to hit around 850kb/d at the end of 2025, according to S&P Global. The launch of additional capacity in March or April on a major oil pipeline is expected to accelerate production in Vaca Muerta by around 30%. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.39/bbl and $2.62/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract softened slightly from $72.75/bbl at 0200 GMT to $72.50/bbl at around 0730 GMT before there was better support to $73.30/bbl at 1015 GMT (time of writing). President Trump announced he would revoke Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela, which Biden had granted over two years ago. This move halts Chevron’s exports of 240kb/d, a significant portion of Venezuela’s oil output. According to Reuters, Trump attributed his decision to the absence of electoral reforms in Venezuela and inadequate measures on migration. Chevron planned to increase exports from its Petropiar operation by 50% this year, reaching 143kb/d. Eni SpA’s Q4 profit fell 46% to €892 million due to lower oil prices, weak refining margins, and missing estimates. Despite 3% production growth, exploration earnings and refining performance lagged, with a €275 million loss. The company also announced a new Southeast Asia joint venture. Pemex’s crude oil exports fell 44% in January to 530kb/d, the lowest since 1990. This marks a sharp drop from last year’s 811kb/d. Exports to the Americas declined 36% to 321kb/d, as US refiners recently reportedly avoided Mexican crude due to high water content. Markets are also watching Trump’s Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy set to visit Washington to sign a rare earth minerals deal, contingent on successful negotiations and continued US aid. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.52/bbl and $2.70/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract was initially supported up to around $73.30/bbl circa 07:00 GMT on Wednesday, where it saw more selling and weakened to $72.95/bbl at 10:20 GMT (time of writing). The soon-to-be prompt May’25 Brent futures contract similarly softened from $72.75/bbl to $72.40/bbl in this time. The market continues to be trading on thin liquidity amid the International Energy Week conference in London. The US and Ukraine have reportedly agreed on the terms of a draft minerals deal, injecting hope that we may see an end to the war between Ukraine and Russia soon. The contents of the deal are still unclear, although Reuters reported, via a source, that the deal does not specify any US security guarantees or continued flow of weapons. A future weapons shipment deal is still being discussed between Washington and Kiev. The market will now await EIA stats on weekly changes in US crude oil and product inventories for the week ending 21 Feb. API estimates for US crude oil showed a 0.640mb decline in stocks w/w. If the EIA confirms a decline in inventories at 15:00 GMT on Wednesday, it would mark the first weekly decline in US crude oil inventories since the week ending 23 Jan. In macroeconomic news, Taiwan has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3.29% to 3.14% due to budget cuts alongside the rising threat of US tariffs. The GDP growth rate for 2024 stood at 4.59%, by comparison. Finally, at the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.49/bbl and $2.40/bbl, respectively.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has seen weakness today, trading from an overnight high of $75.25/bbl at 04:45 GMT down to $74.65/bbl at 10:05 GMT, recovering to $74.75/bbl by 10:45 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, the UN has adopted a US-drafted resolution which takes a neutral position on the Russia-Ukraine, reiterating the UN’s purpose to maintain international peace and urging a swift end to the conflict, as per Reuters. Russia’s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia acknowledged “constructive changes” in the resolution as a “starting point for future efforts”, but also that it was “not an ideal one”. This came after the US failed to convince the General Assembly to pass the same resolution earlier on Monday. Meanwhile, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control has added four Indian companies to its latest list of entities sanctioned for involvement in Iranian crude oil, alleged to be part of Iran’s shadow fleet. In other news, BP is expected to announce a plan on Wednesday to stop pursuing reductions in crude oil and natural gas production, according to Financial Times. BP previously aimed to cut oil and gas production by 40% by 2030 but is set to U-turn in a bid to please its new major shareholder Elliott Management. Finally, President Trump wants the Keystone XL pipeline built, stated in a post on Truth Social. Trump wrote “the company building the Keystone XL Pipeline that was viciously jettisoned by the incompetent Biden administration should…get it built now!”. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads currently stand at $0.48/bbl and $2.54/bbl.

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract has seen strength this morning, increasing from $74.15/bbl at 0815 GMT up to $74.75/bbl at 1015 GMT, before tapering to $74.60/bbl at 1045 GMT (time of writing). Overall, speculators are becoming less optimistic on crude oil’s prospects, with net-long positions in WTI falling to the lowest level since October while money manager long positions in Brent were dialed back by the most since early January, as per Bloomberg. In the news today, Iraq is waiting for Turkey’s approval to restart oil flows from the Iraqi Kurdistan region, the Iraqi Oil Minister stated, adding that Kurdish oil exports could be ready in two days, according to Reuters. Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister claimed the resumption of the pipeline could ship about 185kb/d of crude, Bloomberg reported. In other news, President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to the Middle East on Wednesday (26 Feb) to push for the extension of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Witkoff told CNN. The first phase of the ceasefire includes a deal to exchange 33 Israeli hostages held in Gaza for 2,000 Palestinian detainees held by Israel, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Apr/May’25 and Apr/Oct’25 Brent futures spreads currently stand at $0.41/bbl and $2.31/bbl.