Reports

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Onyx Alpha: January Trade Review

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in gasoline and NGL swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods

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Oil Monthly Report: Fifty Shades of Orange

Oil prices rallied into President-elect Trump’s inauguration only to retreat thereafter. Brent front-month futures peaked at $82.03/bbl on 15 January, declining to below $75/bbl at the time of writing. When examining the positioning data for risk takers, we witnessed consecutive

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European Window: Brent Softens to $75.75/bbl

The Apr’25 Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, softening from $77.20/bbl at 14:10 GMT to $75.15/bbl at 15:25 GMT. The contract found support at this level and climbed to $75.75/bbl at 17:20 GMT (the time of writing).

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Futures Report: Pre-Tariff Tensions

The week to 03 Feb saw markets rebalance ahead of the 01 Feb deadline for President Trump’s introduction of new tariffs on Mexican and Canadian energy and a further 10% on Chinese goods. There was little clarity ahead of the

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CFTC Weekly: Turning the Risk Down

The week ending 28 Jan was characterised by de-risking in the benchmark Brent and WTI futures, more significantly in the latter. Combined open interest in the crude futures declined by 77.89mb (-1.76%) this week.

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Brent Forecast: 3rd February 2025

The talk of the market has been Trump’s tariff announcement on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This week, we expect price action in Brent crude futures to remain rangebound between $75 and $79/bbl in the Apr’25 contract as the

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Fuel Oil Report – Boatloads of Buying

In High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), the 3.5% barge complex weakened into the new year. The Feb/Mar’25 3.5% barge spread dropped from $4/mt on 27 Dec to a contango of -$1/mt on 14 Jan. While this contango was short-lived, the

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Brent Forecast Review: 31st January 2025

Risk off, worry on On Monday, we forecast March Brent futures to end the week between $75-79.00/bbl. At 1600 GMT, March Brent is within this range at $76.75/bbl as it expires today, and April becomes the prompt at $75.75/bbl. This

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Trader Meeting Notes

Trader Meeting Notes: DeepSeeking Tariffs

Gong Xi Fa Cai! Happy Year of the Snake to everyone in the oil market while they anxiously watch the front-month Brent futures contract tread around the low $77/bbl handle on the eve of expiry. The soon-to-be-prompt Apr ’25 Brent

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