The Jun’25 Brent futures continued the morning trend and saw a very volatile afternoon. Prices rallied from $64.70/bbl just before 14:00 BST to $67.30/bbl at 15:14 BST before dropping to $63.79/bbl at 16.14 BST. Since then prices have seen some support and sit at $64.28/bbl at 17:57 BST (time of writing). The gapping seen today comes as president Trump threatens a further 50% tariffs against China. According to Reuters estimates, OPEC’s oil output dropped by 110 kb/d in March to 26.63 mb/d, driven by declines in Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela. Nigeria reduced supply to its Dangote refinery, Iran’s output fell after a six-year high in February, and US. sanctions disrupted Venezuela’s exports, though trade continues. This decline follows Saudi Arabia reducing its official selling prices of its flagship Arab Light Crude by more than implied by a change in the price structure of Dubai. The market continues to feel the impact of OPEC+’s decision last week to accelerate their return of voluntary cut barrels in May. Finally the front month Jun/July and 6 month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $1.05/bbl respectively.
