The front-month Brent futures contract witnessed a weaker afternoon, with prices softening from over $72/bbl at 12:25 GMT to $70.35/bbl at 17:00 GMT. Subsequently, the contract saw a wave of support and rallied to around $71/bbl at 17:20 GMT but met resistance here and stands at $70.65/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to halt strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days, as per a Reuters report. A resolution to the war between Ukraine and Russia would significantly deflate the geopolitical risk premia in oil prices, and we see this expectation offset worries of rising instability in the Middle East, where the US has vowed to continue attacks on the Yemen-based Houthis unless the group ends its attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Also in the Middle East, Israeli air strikes in Gaza have killed over 400 people – as per Palestinian health authorities. Elsewhere, Germany’s parliament has approved plans for a €500 billion fund for infrastructure in an attempt to revive economic growth and to ease borrowing rules to allow higher spending on defence. A Nigerian judge dismissed Nigeria’s NNPC Ltd.’s objection to its inclusion in a lawsuit brought by the Dangote refinery. The lawsuit seeks to halt imports of gasoline to Nigeria, with the Dangote refinery claiming its output is sufficient to meet domestic demand. Finally, at the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $2.05/bbl, respectively.
