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European Window: Brent Supported Around $73.20/bbl

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The May’25 Brent futures contract strengthened from this afternoon’s low of $72.60/bbl at 1340 GMT up to a touch under $73.20/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). Fresh US sanctions on Iran continue to stoke bullish sentiment in crude oil prices. In the news today, the US Department of Interior has announced its plan this week to reopen 82% of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska for leasing and energy project development. Last year, the Biden administration had banned drilling on around 28 million acres of Alaskan federal land, estimated to hold approximately 895mb of recoverable oil. In other news, Kazakhstan’s oil output has reached another record high this month on the back of oilfield expansion, according to Reuters. Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan reached about 2.16mb/d during the period 1-16 Mar, compared with 2.12mb/d average output in February. Meanwhile, India’s dependence on crude oil imports is expected to hit a record high in the fiscal year ending 31 Mar, 2025. According to oil ministry data reported by The Indian Express, India imported 88.2% of the crude it consumed in the April 2024-February 2025 period, up from 87.7% in the same period from 2023 to 2024. Finally, Germany has seized an oil tanker belonging to the Russian shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea in January, the German magazine Spiegel reported. The tanker was travelling under the flag of Panama and was carrying about 100,000 tons of crude oil. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.55/bbl and $2.86/bbl.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.