The Jun’25 Brent crude futures saw a bullish performance on Monday afternoon, rising by nearly $2 over two hours from $73/bbl to $74.70/bbl by 17:00 BST (time of writing). The daily candlestick indicates resolute buying pressure as prices pushed through the 50-day and 100-day resistance levels. Prices have been supported by heightened geopolitical risks of US sanctions that could affect Venezuela and Iran’s oil exports. Trump being ‘angry’ at Putin and threatening secondary tariffs have further raised the bullish temperature. In addition, a strong EIA US demand reading indicated US oil demand in January was at 20.7mb/d, a new record high for January. In other news, the Trump administration has revoked key oil permits for companies like Eni and Global Oil Terminals in a renewed bid to pressure Venezuela’s President Maduro, escalating sanctions and disrupting critical energy trade. Trump threatened steep tariffs on Russian oil over stalled Ukraine ceasefire talks, prompting the Kremlin to confirm ongoing dialogue with the US on peace efforts and bilateral cooperation despite rising tensions. A record surge in North Sea oil swap volumes suggests traders were forced to exit large loss-making positions as prices spiked, squeezing those with bearish bets amid heightened market volatility. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has begun diversifying its crude supply by importing oil from Brazil and Equatorial Guinea, amid inconsistent domestic deliveries and uncertainty over the renewal of its naira-for-crude deal with NNPC. Finally, the front (Jun/Jul) and 6-month (Jul/Dec) Brent futures spreads are at $0.80/bbl and $3.56/bbl respectively.
