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European Window: Brent Rangebound At $81.45/bbl

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Mar’25 Brent futures saw oscillating price action this afternoon, increasing from $81.20/bbl at 1230 GMT to nearly $82.00/bbl at 1425 GMT, before falling to $80.45/bbl at 1630 and recovering to $81.45/bbl at 1745 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, a strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran will not include a mutual defence clause like those Russia has signed with North Korea and Belarus, according to TASS citing an Iranian envoy. In other news, advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are readying a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate Russia-Ukraine diplomacy in coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, Bloomberg reported. One set of policy recommendations suggested good-faith measures to benefit sanctioned Russian oil producers, on the condition that an end to the Ukraine war is in sight. Meanwhile, a second recommendation proposed to ramp up pressure by building on the sanctions. In addition, Scott Bessent said the US is poised to increase sanctions on Russian oil companies to force them to the negotiating table with Ukraine, according to Financial Times. Finally, BP plans to cut some 4,700 jobs and 3,000 contractor roles this year to reduce costs, the supermajor told Reuters. These cuts would be equal to around 5% of the global workforce of around 90,000 employees at BP, aiming to cut at least $2 billion in costs by 2026. At the time of writing, the Mar/Apr’25 and Mar/Sep’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $1.40/bbl and $5.72/bbl, respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.