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European Window: Brent Rallies to $66.86/bbl

Brent rose to $66.71/bbl as BP faces activist pressure, Phillips66 posts a Q1 loss on weak margins, and Iraq-Syria discuss reviving key crude pipeline

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The Jun’25 Brent Futures saw prices slowly rally from $65.57/bbl at 12:30 BST up to $66.86/bbl at 18:32 BST (time of writing). In the news, US refiner Phillips 66 reported a larger-than-expected first-quarter loss due to lower refining margins and major turnaround activities at its plants. The refining unit posted a $937 million loss, compared to a $216 million profit a year earlier, with realized margins falling 38% to $6.81/bbl. Crude capacity utilization dropped to 80% from 92% last year. In other news, Iraq has sent a delegation to Syria to discuss reviving an oil pipeline that once carried crude to the Mediterranean, aiming to boost trade and regional cooperation. Talks also include border security and counterterrorism. The visit follows Syria’s post-Assad transition and recent oil shipments from Kurdish-controlled areas to the new central government, supported by eased EU sanctions. Activist investor Elliott Management, holding over 5% of BP’s shares, is pushing for strategic changes, including removing strategy chief Giulia Chierchia and splitting BP’s upstream and downstream units. The activist investor wants spending cuts and reduced low-carbon investments to boost free cash flow by 40% by 2027. BP has already begun shifting back to oil and gas under CEO Murray Auchincloss but faces pressure as oil prices fall. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul and the 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.83/bbl and  $2.34/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.