The Jun’25 prompt Brent futures contract saw a volatile afternoon, with prices jumping quickly up to $65.13/bbl at 15:15 BST before dropping down to $ 64.24/bbl at 16:46 BST only to move up to $64.70/bbl at 18:20 BST (time of writing). In the news, Nigeria plans to establish a national strategic petroleum products reserve this year to protect its economy from global supply disruptions, according to the country’s petroleum regulator. It will be supported by expanding domestic refining, especially the 650kb/d Dangote Refinery and five smaller plants, which have already cut fuel imports significantly. India’s average crude oil import price dropped below $70/bbl this month for the first time since 2021, falling 17.87% from March to $69.39/bbl. This decline, driven by global trade and tariff tensions, may lead to lower fuel prices for consumers and increased purchases by refiners. With crude import dependence hitting a record 88.2% in the current fiscal year, India continues to rely heavily on imports amid flat domestic production. However, US trade policies and rising tariffs could dampen future growth. In other news, TotalEnergies expects a nearly 4% rise in Q1 oil and gas production. Its exploration and production division will benefit from higher output and slightly better prices than late 2024, while LNG results should improve year-on-year but fall short of Q4. Refining and chemicals are expected to remain flat due to weaker petrochemical and biofuel margins in Europe. Finally the front month Jun/Jul spreads and 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.72/bbl and $1.93/bbl respectively.
