The Jun’25 Brent futures contract rallied up to $65.81/bbl at 12:15 BST before falling off to $64.12 /bbl at 17:12 BST and have currently slightly bounced back up to $64.37/bbl at 17:32 BST (time of writing). OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 150 kb/d to 1.30 mb/d, citing weaker-than-expected Q1 data and US trade tariffs. It also trimmed its economic growth forecast for 2024 and 2025. Despite the cut, OPEC remains more optimistic than the IEA, which sees demand peaking this decade. Meanwhile, OPEC+ output dipped slightly in March due to lower production from Nigeria and Iraq, though Kazakhstan exceeded its quota again and plans to compensate for the overproduction in April. China’s crude oil imports surged to 12.mb/d in March, the highest since August 2023, driven by a rebound in Iranian and Russian oil flows. Customs data showed total imports at 51.41 million mt, up from early 2025 levels. Seaborne imports hit 10.6 mb/d, boosted by record Iranian crude arrivals in Shandong, while Russian oil also made a comeback via sanctioned and dark fleet tankers using ship-to-ship transfers. In other news, the Keystone oil pipeline, shut last week due to a 3,500-barrel leak near Fort Ransom, North Dakota, is expected to resume service by Tuesday, April 15, pending approval from US regulators. Operator South Bow isolated the affected segment and contained the spill, but authorities required further inspections, testing, and repairs before restart. Finally the front month Jun/Jul spreads and the 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $0.65/bbl and $ 1.92 /bbl respectively.
