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European Window: Brent Breaks Below $70/bbl

The May’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, trading from $70.20/bbl at 1200 GMT down to almost $68.35/bbl around 164 0 GMT, recovering to $69.10/bbl at 1740 GMT (time of writing). M1 Brent futures has now fallen to the lowest level seen since December 2021. Crude oil prices have declined following a larger-than-expected EIA build of 3.61mb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 28 Feb, alongside bearish sentiment surrounding the April OPEC+ output hike and Trump tariffs. In the news today, the US has now paused intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, CIA director John Ratcliffe said. This followed a halt to US military aid to Kyiv earlier this week, adding pressure on Ukraine to cooperate in peace talks. In other news, Russia saw its oil and gas revenues drop by 18.4% in February y/y, according to data from the Russian Finance Ministry cited by TASS. Finally, Egypt is inviting international companies to bid for 13 offshore and onshore blocks in a new licensing round to boost domestic oil and gas production. This includes three offshore blocks in the Gulf of Suez and three onshore exploration areas in Egypt’s Western Desert. At the time of writing, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads stand at $0.42/bbl and $1.97/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.