05 February 2025: 08:30 GMT
Has Trump thought this through? Iran’s oil exports are less vulnerable now than they were in his first term when he turned the screw on Khamenei’s regime. According to the state news agency Shana, Iran’s 2017 crude exports averaged 2.13 mil b/d, plus almost 500 kboe/d of gas condensate. Based on OPEC’s most recent monthly report, Iran produced 3.259 mil b/d of crude last year. And China imported over 1.6 mil b/d of crude from “Malaysia” (winky face) in December – slightly above the year’s average. The (clearly non-partisan) United Against Nuclear Iran organisation recorded a 10.75% y/y increase in Iranian oil exports in 2024. Iran’s oil minister proudly boasted this morning that his country had broken a 10-year record in oil exports in January, though he didn’t provide a figure – convenient timing. Also, why would China conform to Trump’s sanctions? It’s a sovereign country with its own legislation and the US has no jurisdiction to impose international rule of law… The Iranian minister also hinted a massive new oil contract will be signed soon.
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