04 April 2025: 09:30 BST
It is bad, really bad. Wars of any kind including trade wars leave heaps of casualties in their wake. In this case, depleted consumers, shutdown manufacturers, trucking and shipping companies and chip manufacturers, one of the main US exports to China. The size of trade is huge and more details in the next section. But in the meantime, oil got whacked! Down, down, down it goes. We are firmly in the 60s territory. Just as flat price gets whacked with one bearish headline, another one emerges. Tariffs, OPEC, retaliation. From a $75 handle at the start of April we’re now down almost $10/bbl! It’s brutal out there folks, recession fears are growing, and China just announced a hefty 34% reciprocal tariff on all US goods from April 10! No crude, oil product, LNG or any other commodity type will go from the US to China. China is the world’s biggest seaborne crude importer and flow US-China is now firmly shut! The US trade deficit with China last year was near $300 billion! Up 5.8% y/y – the US needs China more than the other way around…
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
We invite you to read our reports, which will initially be published twice a day, reflecting closing values at 16:30 Singapore time (SGT) and at 16:30 London time (GMT/BST).
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