04 February 2025: 08:30 GMT
Bullish consultants, where art thou? Still misleading your employers? Let’s be realistic here, the Big T wants low oil prices, and he is gumming up the works with tariff sands in the economic gears. This will slow down somewhat world GDP, reducing even the US potential. And OPEC needs money and Saudi Arabia among other has a ton of oil waiting to be released. And then there’s Guyana and… Kazakhstan. Let’s not forget that the EV revolution continues at incredible pace. BYD’s electrical commercial vehicle sales excluding buses rose 2,454% y/y in January! What gives? The price of course. Today Brent broke through the $75 defence line, reaching a low of 74.82/bbl. After a minor bounce we are hanging precariously at $75.15 by press time. It is bad, there is just too much oil waiting in the wings and the high prices we have seen are more the result of 1) trading games or 2) freak outs by Indians and Chinese buyers and then suddenly they wonder why they did what they did. Or maybe they were getting ahead of the ban! The Chinese did not wait for a mano a mano between Trump and Xi and they just fired their retaliation. ‘You tariff us and… we tariff you!’ ‘You think we are afraid or give the opportunity to threaten us with an oil ban or tariff, guess what we are tariffing not only your oil, your LNG and your coal!’ Kapow! LPG was exempted our Chinese sources tell us.
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