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Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Sees Resistance at $74/bbl

The May’25 Brent crude futures fell from the $74/bbl level on Thursday morning, reaching $73.50/bbl by 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Price action encountered a triple resistance zone at $74/bbl, where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages converged with the upper Bollinger Band. SAF production is on a steep climb but still projected to fall 30–45% short of 2030 targets due to high costs, underinvestment, and slowing project momentum, according to a new BCG report. China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical has opened a Calgary office and purchased its first Canadian crude cargo from Suncor. U.S. oil producers are facing geological and cost pressures in the Permian Basin, where rising gas and water output, aging wells, and less desirable acreage breakevens point to slowing production growth and a potential peak before 2030. Repsol and NEO Energy have agreed to merge their UK North Sea oil and gas operations into a new joint venture, NEO NEXT, aiming to boost output and unlock over $1 billion in synergies, as consolidation continues amid shifting regional economics and tax pressures. Uganda’s East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) has secured its first $1 billion tranche of bank financing, marking a key milestone for the TotalEnergies-led project as construction passes the halfway point on the 1,443-km export route to Tanzania’s coast. The Trump administration has called on oil and biofuel industry groups to negotiate a new consensus on U.S. biofuel policy, aiming to prevent the political friction that defined earlier Renewable Fuel Standard debates. Finally, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads are at $0.70/bbl and $3.20/bbl respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.