The May’25 Brent futures softened below $70.00/bbl overnight to below $69.50/bbl at around 0720 GMT before strengthening to $70.30/bbl at 1020 GMT (time of writing). Trump’s 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminium took effect at midnight ET with no exemptions. The EU swiftly responded, announcing €26bn ($28bn) in counter-tariffs starting next month. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen condemned the move as “unjustified” and vowed further countermeasures. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski confirmed that US aid deliveries to Ukraine via the Rzeszów-Jasionka hub have resumed to pre-pause levels. He spoke alongside his Ukrainian counterpart Andriy Sybiha, who was returning from Jeddah. Kazakhstan will cut oil shipments via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in March, Deputy Energy Minister Alibek Zhamauov announced. The move aligns with OPEC+ commitments, with CPC transport reductions accounting for about 70% of the total production cut. Russian crude exports from all ports increased by around 300kb/d in the four weeks leading up to 09 Mar, marking the largest increase since Jan 2023 and reaching 3.37 mb/d—the highest level since 10 Nov. At the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.53/bbl and $2.52/bbl, respectively.
