The Jun’25 Brent Futures contract saw prices fall to $64.58/bbl at 08:07 BST before slowly rallying up to $65.72/bbl at 12:18 BST (time of writing). Oil prices edged up Monday, helped by US tariff exemptions and strong Chinese crude imports, but gains were capped by ongoing US-China trade tensions. Goldman Sachs cut its 2025 Brent forecast to $63/bbl, citing weaker demand. Dec’25/Dec’26 Brent futures flipped into contango, signalling oversupply concerns. US rig counts continued to fall, and on Friday before this weekend’s talks, Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned the US could block Iranian oil exports as part of renewed pressure over Tehran’s nuclear program. In other news, BP has discovered potentially commercial oil and gas in the Far South field in the US Gulf of Mexico, about 120 miles off Louisiana. This comes as the company shifts focus back to oil and gas, aiming to grow Gulf production to 400 kb/d by 2030. The G7 and UK are discussing lowering the $60/bbl price cap on Russian oil exports, as it has become ineffective with recent price drops. Russia has bypassed the cap by using non-Western insurers and tankers. While some Russian oil is sold below the cap, experts suggest a reassessment of strategies to limit Russia’s oil revenue, as the cap’s impact has been limited. Despite this, Western tankers still transport a significant amount of Russian crude. Finally the front month Jun/Jul spreads are at $0.74/bbl and the 6-month Jun/Dec spreads are at $ 2.26/bbl.
