After the May’25 Brent futures contract weakened from an overnight high of $73.65/bbl down to $72.35/bbl at 0900 GMT this morning, flat price has seen some support, trading up to $72.85/bbl at 1045 GMT (time of writing). Progress towards a resolution to the war in Ukraine has continued to exert bearish pressure on crude oil prices, with France and Britain now proposing a one-month truce that would cover air, sea, and energy infrastructure attacks. In the news today, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect on Tuesday (04 Mar), but that President Trump will decide whether to stick with the planned 25% level or make adjustments, as per Reuters. In other news, Russia has said that a fire overnight at the Bashneft-owned Ufimsky oil refinery was caused by technical issues. The fire at the 168kb/d refinery has since been extinguished, with Bashneft’s press service claiming the fire did not affect the main production facilities. Finally, the startup of oil production from Equinor’s Johan Castberg oilfield, estimated to hold some 450-650mb of recoverable oil, has been delayed again due to bad weather impacting vessel and helicopter traffic, a spokesperson for Equinor told Reuters. At the time of writing, the May/June’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.47/bbl and $2.54/bbl, respectively.
