Jun’25 Brent futures gapped down this morning and continued to be under pressure. There were highs this morning of around $73.40/bbl at around 02.40 BST, and the contract had dropped below $71.65/bbl at 11.25 BST (time of writing). From 5 April, the US will impose a 10% base tariff on most countries. Roughly 60 nations seen as the ‘worst trade offenders’ will face higher, customised rates from 9 April — with the EU at 20%, China at 54% (including previous tariffs), and Japan at 24%. A separate 25% tariff on foreign cars is also being introduced. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen warned of “dire” global consequences and is preparing its response, while China promises strong countermeasures and Canada calls for a firm, united reaction. The trade-weighted DXY has broken to a new low for the year and has nearly retraced 75% of the Trump rally since October. A meeting of eight top OPEC+ ministers is expected to stick with the current plan for gradually increasing oil production starting in April, according to two sources from the group. The ministerial talks began at 10.00 BST. Russia has ordered a 90-day shutdown of berth 8 at the Novorossiysk oil port following safety checks triggered by the oil spill in December. This comes after a temporary halt to two moorings used for Kazakh oil exports. Violations must be fixed by 30 June, according to Transneft. At the time of writing, the Jun/Jul’25 and Jun/Dec’25 Brent futures stand at $0.77/bbl and $3.08/bbl, respectively.
