The May’25 Brent crude futures saw a sharp drop, falling below $70/bbl on Wednesday morning but bounced higher, rising to $70.30/bbl by 10:30 GMT (time of writing). While prices softened on signs of progress towards a ceasefire deal in Ukraine, $70 remains a critical level of support. In the news, Russia and Ukraine traded accusations of air attacks on civilian infrastructure just hours after Putin told Trump he would pause strikes on Ukraine’s energy system, with both sides reporting significant drone assaults and damage. In line with this, Ukrainian drone strike set fire to a Russian oil depot linked to the CPC pipeline, underscoring the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructure amid ongoing attacks, while a potential ceasefire could ease risks for Russian and Kazakh oil exports. A fire on the 180kb/d Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) has halted crude flows to Nigeria’s Bonny Light export terminal, with operator Renaissance Africa responding to the incident, raising concerns over potential force majeure and further delays in loading operations. Finally, the front (May/Jun) and 6-month (May/Nov) Brent futures spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $2.25/bbl respectively.
