This morning, the front-month Brent futures contract ticked lower, from $74.15/bbl at 01:15 GMT to $73.75/bbl at 05:45 GMT. While the contract met resistance at the $74/bbl handle early morning, it saw a surge of volatility at around 08:30 GMT, following which prices moved from under $73.70/bbl to just shy of $74/bbl at 08:58 GMT (time of writing). Still, Brent prices are on track to end the week higher relative to Monday’s open of $72/bbl. Four Asian refining sources said, in a Reuters survey, that Saudi Arabia may lower its May official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light Crude by $1.80 to $2/bbl m/m. This change, if true, would suggest that the May Arab Light price could come at a premium of around $1.50-1.70/bbl to the average of Oman and Dubai prices, down from $3.50/bbl. The survey also highlighted that May OSPs for Saudi Arabia’s other grades, Arab Light Extra and Arab Medium, are expected to decline by at least $1.85. The survey respondents also mentioned that Arab Heavy could fall by $1.80 but may find support from the latest US threat of 25% tariffs from Venezuelan oil-buying countries. In other news, British retail sales unexpectedly rose by 1% m/m in February, as per the Office of National Statistics (ONS), driven by non-food sales. France’s harmonised inflation rate, which is adjusted with other Eurozone countries, climbed 0.9% y/y in March, unchanged m/m but below Reuters expectations of an average rise of 1.1%. Finally, at the time of writing, the May/Jun’25 and May/Nov’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.70/bbl and $3.40/bbl, respectively.
