On Monday, the Apr’25 Brent futures flat price opened higher from Friday’s close, at $75/bbl, and has trended higher, reaching $75.50/bbl by 10:30 GMT (time of writing). The market is becoming sanguine in relation to tariff announcements and might be less reactive considering the possibilities of either a deal being reached or an escalation. ICE and CFTC COT data indicate a reduction in length in both Brent and WTI futures in the week ending 04 February, as their combined net position fell by 64mb (-13%) w/w. In the news, BP shares surged 7% to their highest since August after activist investor Elliott Management took a stake, fueling speculation about potential board changes and strategic shifts ahead of BP’s Capital Markets Day later this month. Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is set to reach full capacity in 30 days after resolving crude supply challenges, with plans to expand into new markets, including supplying jet fuel to Saudi Aramco. Iran has vowed to counter Trump’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at slashing its oil exports, arguing that similar efforts in the past have failed, even as new U.S. sanctions target entities facilitating Iranian crude shipments to China. Finally, the front (Apr/May) and 6-month (Apr/Oct) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $2.71/bbl respectively.
