The Jun’25 Brent futures contract saw a another volatile morning. Prices gapped down overnight to $64.87/bbl and then slowly moved up to $65.23/bbl at 08:00 BST before falling down to $63.47/bbl at 09:57 BST, they have since jumped back up to $63.93/bbl at 11:57 BST (time of writing ). In the news, China retaliated with an 84% import levy on US goods, while Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. According to Reuters, analysts warned the deepening standoff and uncertain demand outlook could send crude prices lower, with $50/bbl seen as a potential support level in a global slowdown. China’s imports of Iranian crude soared to record levels in March, reaching as high as 1.8 mb/d. The spike, driven by concerns over tightening US sanctions, saw Iranian oil account for 13% of China’s total crude intake, with much of it routed through Malaysia and Singapore and rebranded. Vortexa senior analyst Emma Li, expects imports to ease in April due to soft demand, keeping the year-to-date average near 1.3–1.4mb/d. In other news, US shale industry is hit by tumbling crude oil prices as they fall below the breakeven level for new drilling, echoing fears of a repeat of the 2020 crash. Despite a temporary tariff pause for other nations, concerns over slowing economies and rising OPEC+ output have driven prices down. Finally, the front month Jun/Jul spreads are at $0.40/bbl and the 6-month Jun/Dec Spreads are at $1.80/bbl.
