Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. Bearish sentiment has slowly been picking up since positioning hit flat on 21 Feb, falling to a three-month low of around -127k lots on 11 Mar. Positioning has seen little movement over the past week, moving up slightly to -122k lots by 17 Mar. The majority of the selected futures contracts continue to be net bearish, except for RBOB which flipped net bullish from -21.5k lots on 03 Mar up to 2.4k on 05 Mar. This week, RBOB futures positioning has increased slightly to 5.2k lots by 17 Mar. Brent futures sat the lowest on the positioning model this week, reaching -44k lots on 11 Mar, now at its most bearish positioning seen since September 2024. WTI positioning was close behind as the second lowest on the model, hitting -37k lots on 12 Mar. Heating oil and gasoil futures have both steadily declined from around -20k and -22k lots, respectively, to -26k lots each.
Click below to explore our weekly CFTC COT reports, including a new report detailing historical Onyx COT data for key swap contracts.
